我是一名工人,我能看懂的美联储,你也一定能!

楼主:工人大团结 时间:2010-02-15 12:59:00 点击:2372 回复:10
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下面是我用了六小时翻译的华盛顿邮报上的一篇文章,期间细细琢磨,终于成文,但是对其中一些经济术语以及具体政策的翻译仍旧有待考究,请深谙经济学的老师们批评指正,让大家在问题中普及经济学,在独立思考中看懂美联储……
  
   联邦储备局希望明确的退出计划会增强市场信心
   当经济已经被数万亿美元的货币洪流所淹没的时候,其后的处理工作将是不轻松的。
   联邦储备局所要面对的现实是他们开始着手解释如何撤销当经济处于谷底时所采取的刺激经济发展的政策,并进一步使人们清楚这一举措将何时推出,这就是他们面临的现实。
   但是这却是一场不愉快的经历,联邦储备局和经济学家们预计失业率将在数年内保持较高的水平,尽管失业率在一月份的时候曾降至9.7%,如果联邦储备局的动作再快点会使目前的情况更加糟糕,同时,金融市场出现了新的脆弱迹象,在最近的三周中动荡不已,比如,在周一股票市场道琼斯指数下降1%逼近10000点大关,创下了三个月以来的新低。
   美联储 伯南克信誓旦旦的表示如果中央银行公开退出刺激经济发展的详细步骤,将会使人们更加深信美联储不会坐视通货膨胀的发生。反过来将有利于保持长期的低利率而且允许美联储在长期的超低利率水平上控制短期利率。
   “你知道你正在做的是在试图激发信心,这能够在不损害复苏的情况下缓解初期的通货膨胀”去年还是美联储经济学家的卡伦戴楠说,现指导布鲁金斯机构的经济研究项目。
   但是退出战略的实施伴随着风险,显然,投资者会把有关减少货币供应的公告理解为这些计划正在开始一步步实施的标志,将会促使利率不像美联储所认为的那样走低而是在短期内升高,这将会减缓经济的复苏甚至会使其停滞。
   伯南克计划在周三向众议院金融服务委员会提供关于联邦退出计划的证词,其后也许会在此月向国会进行有关货币政策的半年述职时 详细介绍退出策略。
   一旦时机成熟,美联储有可能会提高超额银行准备金率来回收流动性,银行经常会收起那些不作他用的现金(比如应该贷款给借款者的钱)放在美联储获得目前0.25%的准备金利息。如果有通货膨胀预期,美联储将会提高准备金利率,促使银行将资金收起而不是放出去。
   众所周知,在2008年10月,美国批准了不良资产救助计划,而这份计划在创造7000亿美元的联邦紧急援助的同时给予了美联储鲜为人知的权利,美联储可以支付准备金利息。但是现在美联储官员将这项权利视为为管理经济推出的央行工具包中的主要工具。这项权利甚至使美联储过去曾经用来调节经济的传统方式——设置“联邦基金利率”的指标,各银行在此基础上进行贷款——逐渐淡化。
   “准备金利息是重头戏……在美联储撤出战略中成为主要的工具”,圣路易斯的联邦储备银行 詹姆斯布拉德在周一的采访中说到。他补充说这已经在美联储内部关于如何提前几个月甚至几年制定政策的问题上引起了意义重大的讨论。
   “老的经济措施总是围绕着联邦基金利率,在很长的一段时期中一直通过利率变化影响经济,现在我们没有使用,并不意味着我们随时很快的淘汰这样的措施。”布拉德说。
   纽约联邦储备银行通过买卖有价证券来执行中央银行的货币政策,已经在配合其他方式来回收流动性包括“定期存款”。这将从根本上促使银行在一段特定时期内将钱存在美联储。美联储也会采取回购协议的措施,允许中央银行将其负债表上的资产转变为现金,这将从金融系统抽回现金。
   截止到2月1日,美联储结束几个其在金融危机底部开始的非常规贷款项目。美联储领导人说将在三月底停止在公开市场购买1.25万亿的住房抵押贷款证券,相反而是让它们经过数年的成长自行消化。
   卖出这些债券将从经济中回收货币,同时在美联储的资产负债表上缩水了2.2万亿,避免了通货膨胀也使美联储从资助抵押贷款的业务中脱离出来,但是卖出这些资产将推搞抵押贷款利率,使恢复缓慢并且仍旧脆弱的房产市场受到打击。
   迄今为止,美联储已经让市场明白“如何”退出经济支持与“何时”退出的区别。至于利率何时提高,这要看经济的发展程度和通货膨胀预期。如果经济恢复缓慢,央行将等待更长的时间,如果经济得到突发的增长,利率将会马上提升。同样,如果投资者开始期待通货膨胀的爆发,美联储将会更快更积极的提高利率。
   在一月末的政策制定会议上,美联储说可能延长保持更低利率的时间,并强调这已经实行了一年多。虽然美联储的政策制定者们在延长多久的问题上有不同意见,但这意味着低息期将持续至少六个月之久,纽约联邦银行行长威廉上周说。
   金融市场将密切关注伯南克周三在众议院金融服务委员会的证词,毕竟伯南克的战略关键是胜利,是美联储能够减少系统内现金的信心。
  “我认为市场在退出战略计划中有很大的透明度”瑞士再保险公司的首席美国经济学家库尔特说,”现在也许是提供具体细节的最佳时机,据我了解,执行官将提供更多细节虽然这些依旧达不到市场的要求。
  

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作者:红领商人 时间:2010-02-15 13:03:11
      
    作者:惊型动魄 回复日期:2010-01-26 22:04:00 
              
    江西省原副省长胡长清除了爱写字,更爱读书。经常读的书是:《肉蒲团》《素女心经》《金瓶梅》,读完后学的是有模有样,养情妇嫖妓女,躺在床上一边读一边练,反复研读,细心体会,实践出真知,最后得出的结论竟是:“妓女和做官是最相似的职业”。
    
    
  
楼主工人大团结 时间:2010-02-15 13:26:07
  原文:
  Federal Reserve hopes clear exit strategy will boost market confidence
  
  
  When you've flooded the economy with trillions of dollars, mopping up is no easy task.
  
  That's the reality the Federal Reserve is confronting as it starts to explain how it will undo the aggressive growth-supporting steps that were put in place when the economy was in its deep dive -- and begins to be clearer about when that may happen.
  
  But it is a fraught exercise. Federal Reserve leaders and private economists expect the jobless rate to remain high for years, despite a dip in the unemployment rate to 9.7 percent in January, and the Fed could make the situation worse if it moves too abruptly. In the meantime, financial markets have shown new signs of fragility, swooning in the past three weeks, including a 1 percent drop in the stock market Monday that drove the Dow Jones industrial average to close under 10,000 for the first time in three months.
  
  Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is betting that if the central bank is open about how it will phase out its expansive initiatives to prop up the economy, it will provide faith that the Fed will not allow inflation to flare down the road. That in turn would help keep long-term interest rates low and could allow the Fed to keep the short-term rates it controls at ultra-low levels for longer.
  
  "You're trying to inspire confidence that you know what you're doing, which can help put the brakes on any incipient inflation without damaging the recovery," said Karen Dynan, a Fed economist until last year who now co-directs the Brookings Institution's economic studies program.
  
  But that strategy comes with risks. Most notably, investors may interpret the talk about reducing the money supply as a sign that those steps are imminent. That could prompt interest rates to rise sooner than the Fed would like, which could slow the economic recovery or even stop it.
  
  Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday about unwinding Fed actions and will probably elaborate on those plans later in the month with his semiannual testimony on Capitol Hill about monetary policy.
  
  Once the time comes, the Fed is likely to sop up cash from the economy by increasing the interest paid on excess bank reserves. Banks often park money they aren't otherwise using -- for instance, lending to borrowers -- at the Fed and are currently paid 0.25 percent interest on those reserves. If inflation became a threat, the Fed could raise the interest rate, giving banks an incentive to park even more cash rather than lending it.
  
  The Fed has been able to pay interest on reserves only since the power was included as a little-noticed part of the law that created the $700 billion federal bailout, known as the Troubled Assets Relief Program, in October 2008. But now, Fed officials view this authority as a key element in the central bank's tool kit for managing the economy. This power could even eclipse the approach the Fed has traditionally used to influence the economy: setting a target for the "federal funds rate" at which banks lend to one another.
  
  "Interest on reserves is the workhorse . . . and is intended to be the main tool" in the Fed's exit strategy, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in an interview Monday. That, he added, has created significant discussion within the Fed about how to make policy in the months and years ahead.
  
  "The old regime was it was always about the fed funds rate," Bullard said. He added: "You had a long history of what the impact on the economy was of a change in the rate. We don't have that now, and it doesn't look like we'll really be back in that scenario anytime very soon."
  
  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which executes the central bank's monetary policy by buying and selling securities, has been experimenting with other tools that might allow it to drain the money supply, including "term deposits." These would essentially give banks incentive to deposit money at the Fed for a set period of time. The Fed is also testing reverse repurchase agreements, which would allow the central bank to temporarily swap assets on its balance sheets for cash, thus pulling that cash out of the financial system.
  
  As of Feb. 1, the Fed ended several of its more unconventional lending programs that were started during the depths of the financial crisis. And Fed leaders have said it will cease purchases of $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities by the end of March. A knottier question is when it might sell some of those securities on the open market, as opposed to letting them reach maturity over many years.
  
  Selling these securities would pull money out of the economy and shrink the Fed's $2.2 trillion balance sheet, helping to avoid inflation and getting the Fed out of the business of subsidizing mortgages. But selling the assets probably would drive up mortgage rates, damaging a housing sector whose recovery is slow and fragile.
  
  So far, the Fed has convinced markets that the "how" of unwinding support for the economy is separate from the "when." As for when the rate increases will begin, that will depend on how the economy is doing and whether inflation expectations rise. If the recovery fizzles, the central bank would wait longer. If there is a strong burst of growth, rates would increase sooner. Similarly, the Fed would probably raise rates sooner and more aggressively if investors began to expect a burst of inflation.
  
  At its policymaking meeting in late January, the Fed said it is likely to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for "an extended period," repeating language it has used for more than a year. While Fed policymakers have differing views on how long an extended period would be, William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said last week that it means rates will stay very low for at least six more months.
  
  The financial markets will be closely watching Bernanke testify Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. After all, the key to Bernanke's strategy is winning is the confidence of market participants in the Fed ability to drain cash from the system.
  
  "I think the markets would like to have a bit more transparency on the exit strategy plans," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re. "It's probably the right time to provide more detail. As I understand it, the chairman will provide quite a bit of detail, though perhaps not as much as the market wants."
  
  
  
作者:espn16500 时间:2010-02-15 18:07:10
  mark
作者:asdfgtrewq258369 时间:2010-02-15 20:02:38
  ddddd
作者:爱车人生 时间:2010-02-15 22:06:47
  友情提醒:
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作者:187141978 时间:2010-02-15 22:20:48
  迷糊,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
作者:lynfps 时间:2010-02-15 22:35:14
作者:扒拉几个铜板 时间:2010-02-15 23:02:23
   迷糊,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
作者:zgjdbg 时间:2010-02-15 23:02:42
  VERY GOOD
作者:li30 时间:2010-02-15 23:14:30
  
  
  ----美元是我们的,问题是你们的。
  
  楼主你知道这句话是谁说的吗?
  
  你真的看懂了美联储?
  
  我看你还有很大差距。
  
  
  
  看金融,要用历史的、政治的眼光。
  
  几个公开的数据,什么也说明不了。
  
  唯一能表述的,是他们在极力欺骗别人。
  
  仅此而已。
  
  
  
  
  
  
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