In the wake of a crisis 危机之后

楼主:Somers2009 时间:2010-01-03 12:24:00 点击:281 回复:5
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Finance
  财经
  
  In the wake of a crisis危机之后
  
  Nov 13th 2009
  From The World in 2010 print edition
  By Philip Coggan
  译者:intel英杰(经济学人中文论坛)
  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/
  
  The credit crunch ripples on 信用紧缩余波未了
  
  After the panic, the relief. Some of the building blocks of the prolonged market rally that began in March 2009 will still be around in 2010. First, central banks, nervous about raising rates until they are sure the financial system has recovered from the trauma of the credit crunch, will keep interest rates low. Second, the scale of the recession means that it will be some time before inflationary pressures can emerge. And, third, with interest rates near zero, investors are bound to be tempted to move money into risky assets.
   大恐慌过后,可以释怀了。今年3月,为时甚长的市场复苏出现,复苏的一些基本因素仍将在来年继续存在。首先,中央银行——在确定金融系统完全从信用紧缩的创伤中恢复过来之前,不敢提高利率——将会维持利率于低水平。其次,经济衰退的规模意味着通胀压力很久之后将出现。再者,随着利率接近零,投资者想要将资金用于风险资产。
  
  Corporate profits around the world took a big hit during 2007 and 2008, particularly in the financial sector. There should accordingly be scope for profits to rebound in 2010—by as much as 28.3%, according to forecasts compiled by Société Générale.
   全球公司的利润在过去两年间遭受重创,尤其在金融部门。于是,这会给来年的利润反弹留有余地——利润将增加28.3%,据Société Générale的预测。
  
  At the same time, the credit crunch has not disappeared. The number of banks on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s “at risk” list has been increasing, not falling. In many countries commercial property is enduring a rise in vacancies and defaults, in a slow-motion replay of the housing crash. Private-equity groups still have to roll over debts they incurred in the boom of 2006 and early 2007.
   与此同时,信用紧缩还没有消失。在联邦存款保险公司的清单中,被定性为“处境危难”的银行数量只增不降。许多国家的商用房产经历了房屋空置和违约的双升,以慢镜回放的方式再现了房产的崩溃。私募股权(基金) 集团仍必须债务展期它们在06年全年和07年早些时候经济繁荣时承担的债务。
  
  Furthermore, investors’ well-known tendency to discount the future, so helpful to the market in 2009, could be a pain to it in 2010. Central banks have introduced an extraordinary flurry of measures to deal with the credit crunch, including guarantees of bank debt and the outright purchase of assets. At some point, they will have to unwind those strategies. Even if that unwinding is delayed until 2011, investors may spend the second half of 2010 speculating about it.
   而且,人所共知,投资者倾向于对将来(的可能结果) 折现,这很有助于09年的市场,(但)可能成为来年的市场之痛。央行已经采取了非同寻常疾风骤雨般的措施来应对信用紧缩,包括为银行债务担保和一次性购买(有毒)资产。从某种意义上讲,央行需要逆向而动了。即使政府适时离场延长至2011年,投资者或许要用来年半年的时间来琢磨(政府)逆向措施(何时到来)。
  
  Government bond markets could provide the trickiest test. Budget deficits have soared during the crisis, and are expected to hit more than 10% of GDP in both Britain and America. But bond yields have not soared. In part, this was because inflation stayed low and investors were risk-averse in the alarm of the recession. But central banks also helped by buying bonds. If the recovery reaches full speed, central banks will stop purchasing bonds, and may want to sell those they already own.
   政府债券市场将对政府构成最困难的考验。危机期间,预算赤字高升,其在英美两国有望超过各自国民生产总值的10%。但是债券收益并没有上升。部分原因是通胀处于低位并且出于对经济衰退的担忧,投资者选择规避风险。但是央行也通过购买国债帮了一忙。如果经济达到全速复苏,央行将停止购买国债,并且可能卖掉已经持有的债券。
  
  If bond yields are not to soar as a result, governments will need plausible plans to cut their deficits in the medium term. But those plans may be difficult to produce, given that there will be a general election in Britain and mid-term elections in America. And there is also a double risk. A move to curb deficits by raising taxes or cutting spending could stifle the recovery, as the Japanese did by raising the consumption tax in 1997. But if governments do not act, then markets may tighten policy for them, by pushing yields up sharply.
   如果债券收益率结果没有上升,政府将需要貌似合理的计划在中期削减(财政)赤字。但是这些方案或许难以出台,鉴于英国将会进行大选,美国将出现中期(议会)选举。进一步讲,还是存在着双倍的风险。通过增税或者削减(财政)支出来控制赤字可能抑制经济复苏,正像日本在1997年增加消费税一样。但是如果政府不采取行动,那么市场或许通过猛地将收益率推高来替政府收紧政策。
  
  Currency markets may also be affected. Developed countries are hardly likely to default on their bonds. But creditors are still at risk if they are repaid in a devalued currency. Countries that appear to have lost control of their finances could see their exchange rates suffer.
   货币市场也会受到牵连。发达国家几乎不太可能出现债务违约。但是如果债权国拿到的是贬值的货币,它们依旧处于风险之中。那些财政收入失控的国家可能要吃汇率的苦头了。
  
  Indeed, although government action has stabilised the global economy, a whole raft of questions remains unanswered. Has the long period of credit expansion—dubbed the “debt supercycle” by Martin Barnes of Bank Credit Analyst—come to an end? If so, will the result be a long period of sluggish growth? Can China and India carry the global economy on their own? Will another surge in oil prices dampen recovery, as it has so many times before? Will a more regulated economy, particularly in the financial sector, mean that profits form a lower proportion of GDP?
   事实上,虽然政府的行动稳定了全球经济,可是一系列问题尚悬而未决。长期的信用扩张——被银行信用分析师Martin Barnes称为“债务超级周期”——会画上句号吗?如果这样,结果会是长期的经济停滞发展吗?中国和印度能够各自独立带动世界经济吗?正如以往很多次一样,另一波油价冲击将会抑制经济复苏吗?一个监管更为严格的经济体,尤其在金融部门中,意味着利润在GDP中占得份额更少吗?
  
  It may well be that medium-term economic growth will be slower as a result of the crisis. Some capacity has been destroyed and, in developed countries, the baby-boomers are now starting to retire, which will limit the potential size of the labour force. Japan has spent two uncomfortable decades adjusting to an era of slower growth and greying population.
   那可能是中期的经济增长将会受衰退拖累而放缓。一些产能被摧毁,并且在发达国家中,生育高峰出生的一代现在即将退休,这些都将限制劳动力的潜在规模。日本用了痛苦的二十年来适应经济放缓和人口老龄化的时代。
  
  All these issues can be summed up in one big dilemma. If the economy does not enjoy a typically vigorous rebound, then the equity market must come under threat. And if the economy does manage that upturn, then surely government bond prices will fall sharply.
   所有这些问题(都)能够在这个巨大的困境中总结出来。如果经济体不能取得典型的(经济)强势反弹,那么证券市场必将处于危险之中。进一步讲,如果经济体处理好了上升势头,那么政府公债价格就会迅速走低。
  
  This points to a potentially turbulent year. In the past, huge market setbacks have been followed, not by periods of calm, but by long stretches of volatility. The Great Depression included some of the best years ever for Wall Street, with shares rising by over 50% in 1933 and nearly 40% in 1935. But even though shares reached their bottom in 1932, investors still had to live through a flat year in 1934 and a 38% decline in share prices in 1937. In Britain, the bumper year of 1975, when equities more than doubled, was followed by a fall in 1976.
   这些都指向一个潜在的动荡不安的来年。过去,巨大的市场挫折过后,一直是长期的波动不止而非平静祥和。大萧条时期,也有着华尔街最为温馨的岁月,股价在1933年强势上扬了50%并且在1935年(股价上涨)接近(了)40%。但是尽管股价在1932年低至谷底,投资者仍然经历了波澜不惊的1934年并且股价在1937年(又)下跌了38%。在英国,1975年是丰硕的一年,当时股价翻了一倍,接着便是1976年的(股价)跌落。
  
  When a stone falls into a pond, the ripples persist for a while. The credit crunch was a whopping great boulder.
   当一颗石子落入池塘后,荡起的涟漪尚且会持续一段时间。何况信用紧缩(却)是巨如磐石。
  

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作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-04 11:51:20
  At some point, they will have to unwind those strategies.从某种意义上讲,央行需要逆向而动了
  
  at some point: at certain point of time.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-04 11:54:48
  But bond yields have not soared. In part, this was because inflation stayed low and investors were risk-averse in the alarm of the recession.部分原因是通胀处于低位并且出于对经济衰退的担忧,投资者选择规避风险。
  
  translation should points out that "investors were risk-averse ..." means "investors were buying bonds to avert risk in the alarm of the recession".
  
  HTH.
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-01-04 13:36:44
  查了一下,at some point也有在某些位置上、在某一点上的意思,好像可以翻作从某种意义上讲吧?
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-01-04 13:40:07
  第二个建议,我会通知译者在商量一下那一句的译法,谢谢指出来 :)
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-01-04 18:23:57
  译者intel英杰的回复:
  呵呵,非常感谢指正,两条修改都很见水平。第二条是应该补充投资者购买债券,否则读者看了还有点不好理解。两条意见,我都接受。谈谈我对第一条的看法,由于原文
  “Even if that unwinding is delayed until 2011, investors may spend the second half of 2010 speculating about it.”红句部分,我们能读出时间性,可见天涯那位老师的修改很在理。这里是投资者在预期,预测什么时候美国政府不准备端盘子了。
  话说,我又看了这个句子“But bond yields have not soared. In part, this was because inflation stayed low and investors were risk-averse in the alarm of the recession.”债券收益率的推高 如何和 通货膨胀率有关,我在和Y版主论坛下里交流时,我只是在解释为什么通胀率处于低位,以及名义利率处于低位,但是我的问题是解释为什么通胀率会和收益率挂钩。我居然没有解释这个问题,今天再看这个帖子,发现自己忽略了Y版主在8楼的一些知识。其实这和央行的货币政策中的第三种方法——公开债券市场上买卖债券,放或收紧货币的货币政策有关。汗自己不太细心。
  

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