Counting their blessings 细数他们的福祉

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Emerging markets and recession
  新兴市场和经济衰退
  
  Counting their blessings
  细数他们的福祉
  
  Dec 30th 2009
  From The Economist print edition
  译者:sydneycarton(经济学人中文论坛)
  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/
  
  THE political and social consequences of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression have been milder than predicted. In developing countries, at least, governments have not fallen in a heap, as they did after the Asian crisis of 1997-98. They have not battled their own people on the streets, as happened in Europe during the 1930s. Social-protection programmes have survived relatively unscathed. There have been economic-policy shifts, naturally, but no panicky retreat into isolation, populism or foreign adventures. The good news has not been spread evenly, of course: some countries have ridden the storm more successfully than others. And these are only first-round effects: things could still get worse. So far, though, resilience has been the order of the day.
  
  自大萧条以来最严重的经济危机的政治社会后果并没有人们预料的那样严重。至少发展中国家的政府这次没有重蹈覆辙,不像1997-1998亚洲金融危机那样伤亡惨重,也没有像20世纪30年代的欧洲那样在大街上平息民众暴乱。社会保障体系毫发无损。经济政策自然也有调整,但没有惊慌失措地回缩,搞闭关锁国,民粹主义或是境外冒险。当然,并非所有国家都有同样的好消息,部分国家在躲避全球经济风暴方面更加成功。 当然这只是首轮效应,也许更糟糕的事情还在后面。但是到目前为止,经济复苏已成主旋律。
  
  This was not expected a year ago. Then, it seemed likely that normal rules would apply—that when the rich world sneezes, developing countries get swine flu. In the fourth quarter of 2008, when rich economies were contracting by 5% to 10% a year, real GDP fell at an average annualised rate of around 15% in some of the world’s most dynamic economies, including Singapore, South Korea and Brazil. The fall in Taiwan’s industrial output—down by a third during 2008—was worse than America’s worst annual fall during the Depression.
  
  一年前人们可不这么想,那时候大家认为一切都是按老规矩来:发达国家打个喷嚏,发展中国家就能得猪流感。2008第四季度,当发达国家的经济以每年5%-10%的速度下滑时,包括新加坡,南韩,巴西在内的最具经济活力的几个国家的实际GDP都以15%(年化数据)的速率收缩,台湾的工业产量在2008年足足减少了三分之一,比美国在大萧条时期最严重的那一年的经济下跌还糟糕。
  
  Emerging markets seemed likely to suffer disproportionately because of their trade and financial links with the West. Exports in that dreadful last quarter of 2008 fell by half in the Asian tigers at an annualised rate; capital flows to emerging markets went over a cliff as Western banks “deleveraged”. The Institute of International Finance (IIF), a think-tank in Washington, DC, forecast that net private capital flows into poor countries in 2009 would be 72% lower than at their peak in 2007, an unprecedented shrinkage.
  
  新兴市场因与西方发达国家的贸易和金融的关联,受挫程度会大于西方发达国家。亚洲四小龙的出口在晦气的2008第四季度下跌50%(年率),从发达国家到新兴市场的资本流动也因西方国家银行推行“去杠杆化”而中断。华盛顿的一个智囊团“国际金融协会“预测:2009年流入贫困国家的私有资本将出现前所未有的收缩,比2007年的峰值减少72%。
  
  As people peered ahead into 2009, no forecast looked too dire. “The end of globalisation” was a common refrain. Some thought emerging markets would turn inward to protect themselves from the contagion of the West. Others forecast that hundreds of millions of people would be tipped into hunger. The IMF’s managing director, Dominique Strauss Kahn, fretted that unless governments did the right things at the right time, there was a “threat of civil unrest, perhaps even of war”
  
  当人们展望2009时,认为前方已暗无天日,大家普遍预言“全球化的终结”。有人认为新兴市场将会回撤以免受发达国家经济衰退的牵连,有人预计亿万人会陷入饥荒。国际货币基金组织总裁Dominique Strauss Kahn更是深感不安,认为倘若各国政府不能在正确的时机采取正确措施,未来将有可能面临“社会动荡,甚至战争的爆发”。
  
  At the start of 2010 there are indeed a billion hungry people, for the first time in 40 years. But the other forecasts now look excessively gloomy. Whereas the last three months of 2008 saw one disaster after another, the end of 2009 was a period of healthy recovery, as measured by capital, bond and stockmarkets.
  
  2010伊始,全球饥饿人口已达到十亿人,这在四十年来是首次发生。但是其他的预言现在看来太过悲观。尽管2008年最后一个季度坏消息不断,但从资本,债券和证券市场的数据来看,2009年年底时经济已出现良好复苏。
  
  During 2009 the largest developing-country stockmarkets recouped all the losses they had suffered during 2008 (see table). October 2009 saw the largest monthly inflow into emerging-market bond funds since people started tracking the numbers in 1995. Russia’s central bank estimated that the country would attract $20 billion of capital inflows during the fourth quarter, compared with capital outflows of $60 billion in the first nine months. The IIF now reckons that net private capital flows to developing countries will more than double in 2010 to $672 billion (still a long way below their peak). So much new money is flooding into emerging markets that calls for capital controls are echoing around the developing world.
  
  2009年,发展中国家最大的的几个证券市场追回了2008年的亏损。 2009年10月投资新兴市场的债券基金出现自有记录以来(1995年开始记录这一数据)的单月最大数额,俄罗斯中央银行预计:相比于前九个月出现的六百亿的资本外流,他们能够在第四季度引进两百亿的外资。国际金融协会也预测2010发展中国家的净外资流入也会增长一倍多,达到六千七百二十亿。数目如此巨大的资金如潮水般涌向新兴市场,以至于发展中国家纷纷呼吁资本管制。
  
  This craze for emerging-market paper could perhaps prove a bubble. But as a measure of reputational change, it is accurate. Countries that were disaster zones at the start of 2009 achieved gold-rush status by the end of it. This turnaround reflects a resilient economic performance during the recession. It also reflects a stunning degree of political and social cohesion.
  
  新兴市场债券的狂热也许是个泡沫,但是这种现象真实地反映了新兴市场的形象转变。2009年初还是经济危机重灾区的国家到年末却成了投资家的香饽饽。这样的转变体现出这些国家面临经济衰退表现出来顽强适应力,同时也体现了他们惊人的政治和社会凝聚力。
  
  The most important economic reason for this is that emerging markets were less affected by the rich world’s recession than seemed likely early in 2009. Big populous countries—China, India, Indonesia—did not tip into recession; they merely suffered slower growth. Brazil and the Asian tigers saw output fall but bounced back. The pattern, though, was variable. The Baltic states endured a depression; Mexico suffered from its dependence on America; eastern Europe was harder hit than Asia; poor African countries suffered more than middle-income Asian ones.
  
  最重要的一个经济因素就是富裕国家的经济衰退带给新兴市场的影响并非像人们在2009年初设想的那样糟糕,那些人口大国,包括中国,印度,印度尼西亚并未陷入衰退,只是经济增长放缓而已。巴西和亚洲四小龙国家虽出现了产量下降,但很快反弹。整体形势却是几家欢乐几家愁,波罗的海诸国遭遇了经济萧条,墨西哥因其对美国的依赖而深受经济危机影响,东欧国家受挫要比亚洲国家严重,落后的非洲国家较之于中等收入的亚洲国家来说更是苦不堪言。
  
  Overall, the loss of output in emerging markets during 2007 was somewhat greater than it had been in the Asian crisis of 1997-98, but less than had been expected and much less than the fall in world gdp (see chart 1). Emerging markets benefited from their own economic-stimulus programmes and from policy activism in rich countries. Rich-country bail-outs and monetary loosening stemmed worldwide financial panic and helped stoke an appetite for emerging-market exports and assets. In addition, some developing countries built up big cushions of foreign- exchange reserves after the Asian crisis which afforded them some protection.
  
  整体来看,2007年新兴市场的经济产出收缩比在亚洲金融危机时更甚,但并非如预想的那样严重,与世界整体GDP的下跌相比更是小巫见大巫。新兴市场受益于国内经济刺激方案和富裕国家的积极经济政策,富裕国家的出手救市和实施宽松的货币政策避免了世界范围的金融恐慌,拉动对新兴市场出口产品和资产的需求。 另外,亚洲金融危机后,一些发展中国家建立了庞大的外汇储备保证金——为它们提供了一定程度上的保护
  
  Surprising stability
  惊人的稳定
  
  This economic resilience has had big political and social benefits. Politically, the most striking feature of the crisis is how little instability it caused. The worst slump in decades has so far led to the fall of just one emerging-market government: Latvia’s (Iceland’s government also collapsed). Other east-European governments have come under pressure, notably Hungary’s.
  
  这种经济适应力也具有政治和社会意义上的好处。从政治上讲,这场经济危机最鲜明的一个特点就是几乎没有造成什么社会动荡。数十年来最严重的经济滑坡目前只引发了拉脱维亚这一个新兴市场的政府垮台(冰岛政府也垮掉了),其他东欧国家政府也面临着压力,尤其是匈牙利。
  
  But two of the biggest emerging markets—India and Indonesia—held national elections in 2009, and both were won by the ruling party. This was unusual in India, which traditionally votes against incumbents. In another emerging giant, Brazil, the outgoing president is likely to leave office in 2010 with poll ratings in the stratosphere (Luis Inácio Lula da Silva’s favourability ratings stayed above 60% for most of 2009). The global crisis seems to have consolidated, not undermined, the popularity of large developing-country governments, presumably because the economic crisis was perceived to have begun elsewhere and been dealt with efficiently.
  
  但是最大新兴市场中的两擎,印度和印尼,正是在2009举行大选,而且都是上届执政党获胜。这在印度可是不同寻常的事情,印度大选历来是对当权的党派不利的。另一个大的新兴市场巴西,任期即将结束的总统可能会在2010带着最高的民众支持全身而退。全球金融危机似乎巩固而非破坏了大的发展中国家的政府的声望,个中缘由可能是这些国家的民众认为经济危机并非自己的责任,政府也有效处理了经济危机的不利影响。
  
  Contrast that with what happened during the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Widespread rioting in the wake of abrupt devaluation led to the fall of Suharto’s 30-year dictatorship in Indonesia. Devaluation added to popular discontent in the Philippines, culminating in the overthrow of President Joseph Estrada. There was mass discontent in Thailand as millions of urban workers lost their jobs and wandered back to their villages. Financial collapse in Russia produced a political crisis and led to the sacking of the prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko. A couple of years later, Argentina defaulted on its debt and ran through three presidents in ten days at the turn of 2001-02. (“What did you do for Christmas?”, ran the contemporary joke. “I was president.”) In country after country, governments reacted to financial stress and plunging currencies by imposing emergency austerity measures which brought them into conflict with rioters on the streets. That has been much rarer this time.
  
  这些都与亚洲金融危机恰恰相反。亚洲金融危机发生后,剧烈的货币贬值浪潮席卷印尼,各地爆发的骚动导致了苏哈托政府30年独裁政府的终结。货币贬值加上民众对菲律宾政府的普遍不满也最终让约瑟夫艾斯特拉达政权被推翻。泰国大批的城市工人失业,不得不涌向农村谋生,民怨四起。俄罗斯金融体系的崩塌引发政局危机,也让当时的俄罗斯总理基里延科引咎辞职。数年后,阿根廷出现债务危机,在2001和2002更迭之际十天内连续更换三个总统。(阿根廷当时还流行一个笑话,“你圣诞节干什么”,“当总统”)。各国纷纷通过实施紧急的经济紧缩措施来应对财政危机的压力和货币的急剧贬值,这样做也将自己和街头骚乱人群的对立起来。以上现象在这次金融危机鲜有发生。
  
  The second striking feature of the crisis has been that, with one or two exceptions, it seems not to have caused any fundamental shift of popular opinion. There has been no upsurge of angry pessimism, nor any significant backlash against capitalism or free markets. That doubtless explains much of the political composure.
  
  这次危机的第二个显著特点就是似乎没有引发社会主流观点的根本转变,一两个个案除外,这次民间没有暴发出愤怒的悲观主义,也没有明显的向资本主义或自由市场倒戈。这也无疑解释了这次危机中政局稳定的原因。
  
  Compared with people in the West, those in big emerging markets seem in almost sunny mood. In China ,India and Indonesia, according to the Pew Global Attitudes Project in Washington, DC, more than 40% of respondents say they are satisfied with their lives (in China the figure is 87%). In France, Japan and Britain, the share is below 30% (see chart 2). This is unusual: measures of “life satisfaction” tend to rise with income, so you would expect levels to be lower in emerging markets, as they were in 2002-03. The reversal of that pattern may reflect a sense in those countries of their quick recovery.
  
  与西方民众相比,这些大的新兴市场的国民心情灿烂。位于华盛顿的调查机构发起的皮尤全球态度调查结果显示,在中国,印尼和印度,40%以上的受调查者声称他们对自己的生活感到满意。(在中国这一数据高达87%)。在法国,日本和英国,这一比例却低于30%。 这一结果很不一般,生活满足感的应当是和收入挂钩的,所以按理来说新兴市场的人们对生活满意的人数比例应该较低才对,就像2002到2003年的调查结果显示的那样。但是这次调查结果反了过来,表现出这些国家民众对经济迅速复苏的愉快心情。
  
  It is true that the overall levels hide some disturbing trends. A study of Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya and Zambia by the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex found that people there said they were saving less, celebrating together less often and thought that neighbourly support was declining. People also thought children and old people were being abandoned more often. But, overall, such concerns are as great or greater in rich countries.
  
  但是上面所反映的整体(满意)水平的确掩盖了一些令人不安的社会趋势。苏塞克斯大学的发展研究所对孟加拉,印尼,牙买加,肯尼亚和赞比亚这几个国家的进行了一项调查,结果显示这些国家的民众声称他们的储蓄和聚会欢庆活动正在减少,并且他们认为社会的友好支持也在消失,老人和小孩被遗弃的现象更加频繁。但是总体来讲,这些问题在富裕国家同样很严重,有的甚至说是更严重。
  
  The mood in emerging markets is both unusual and consequential. To see how, compare what is happening there with trends in parts of the West. Americans, for example, seem to be hankering for isolationism. According to Pew’s polling, 49% of Americans now think their country should mind its own business internationally. That is more than 30 points higher than when the question was first asked in 1964. Jim Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations points out worrying parallels between what is happening now and America’s reaction to the Great Depression, which sparked a period of introspection that ended only with the second world war. Developing countries are not suffering such anger or frustration.
  
  新兴市场国家这种民众情绪既是独特的,也是必然的,通过对比他们的境况和西方国家的形势就可以理解这一点。例如美国人似乎开始倾向于“独善其身”,根据皮尤的民意调查,现在有49%的美国人认为美国应该专注于国内事务, 1964年的时候美国人曾经被问及同一问题,那时持有这一观点的美国人还不到19%。美国对外关系理事会的Jim Lindsay指出目前的形势和当年美国人对大萧条的反应令人担忧地相似,后者引发了美国人在一段时期内的自我反省,直至二战爆发这一反省才结束。发展中国家的人们就不存在这样的愤怒情绪和挫折感。
  
  That same resilience informs their attitudes to markets. Arvind Subramanian, of the Petersen Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, argues that the recession has set off “no serious questioning of the role of the market” in developing countries. It is true that China has seen a disproportionate rise in lending to state-owned enterprises, but this is not necessarily regarded with favour. China’s media have been flooded with reports of abuses by state firms, all featuring a newly popular, negative-sounding term guojin mintui, which means “the state advances and the private sector retreats”.
  
  这种(面临经济危机)良好的心态也感染了他们对市场的态度。总部位于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的Arvind Subramanian认为这场衰退并未引发发展中国家的民众对市场作用的严重质疑,中国的确出现了对国有企业过度放贷的现象,但这一做法并不是那么受欢迎。媒体铺天盖地的报道国企的不规范行为,而且不约而同地采用了一个贬义的流行词“国进民退”,这个词的意思是国家在向前迈进,私有领域在倒退。
  
  Asked “Are you better off under free markets?”, people in emerging markets are more likely to say yes than those in rich ones. The share of respondents who think they are better off fell in 2009 by between four points (Germany) and ten points (Spain). In most emerging markets, the share either rose (in India and China) or stayed flat (in Brazil and Turkey). No sign of an anti-capitalist backlash there.
  
  在被问及“你们在自由市场条件下是不是过得更好”这一问题时,新兴市场的国民比富裕国家更多给出肯定回答。2009年的调查中,富裕国家中对该问题给出肯定回答的人数比例下降了从4%(德国)到10%(西班牙)不等。而在大多数新兴市场,给出肯定回答的人数比例要么比以前增加(像印度和中国),要么和以前持平(像巴西和土耳其)。这些国家并未出现抨击市场经济的迹象。
  
  The combination of political stability and popular composure has given emerging markets what might be called “policy space” in which to act. They have used it to the full—and mostly for the better. This, in turn, has enhanced their reputations for economic management.
  
  政局的稳定加上民众情绪的稳定给予了新兴市场所谓的“策略空间”让他们能够有所作为,他们充分利用了这一策略空间,而且多数都做到了再接再厉 。这样一来这些国家也赢得了善于管理经济的名声。
  
  Little big spenders
  小户大开支
  
  At the start of 2009 falls in foreign-trade taxes, remittances, aid, commodity prices and capital inflows all threatened developing countries’ fiscal positions, and their social spending especially. For a few, the threat materialised: 20 countries, many in eastern Europe, signed standby arrangements with the IMF and tightened fiscal policy. But by and large, the slash-and-burn approach to crisis management associated with previous bouts of economic trouble was avoided. For the first time in a global recession, emerging markets were free to loosen fiscal policy.
  
  2009年年初,外贸税收,家庭汇款和援助的减少,大宗商品价格的下跌和流入资本流入的下降都威胁到发展中国家的财政状况,尤其是他们的社会开支。对少数国家来说,这一威胁已成为事实:20个国家,多数是东欧国家,和国际货币基金组织签订了备用协议并收紧财政政策。但整体来看,这次发展中国家避免了上几次的经济危机中采用的的“打倒一切”应对危机的方式。在历次全球经济危机中,这是新兴市场第一次能够自由地放宽财政政策。
  
  Some produced big stimulus programmes. China’s is the best known, but Russia, Hong Kong, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Brazil and Chile also unveiled large anti-crisis budgets or countercyclical spending programmes. As a share of GDP, stimulus spending by the emerging-market members of the G20 was larger than spending by the rich members. In that sense, emerging markets did more than their Western counterparts to combat global recession. Even countries that could not afford emergency programmes like China’s let their fiscal balances deteriorate as counter-cyclical spending got under way. In Africa, oil importers let their budget deficits rise from 2.2% of gdp in 2008 to 6% in 2009.
  
  一些政府出台了大规模的经济刺激方案,其中以中国大陆最为显著,俄罗斯,香港,哈萨克斯坦,马来西亚,越南,泰国,新加坡,巴西和智利也都拨出应对危机的大笔预算,或是推出反经济周期的政府开支项目。从占GDP的份额来看,20国集团中新兴市场的刺激性开支要比其富裕国家的开支高。从这个意义上来说,新兴市场在应对全球经济衰退方面比西方国家出力更多。即使是那些无法拿得出中国那样大手笔的经济刺激方案的国家,也在反经济周期开支方案出台时增加他们的财政赤字。在非洲,原油进口商们也放任预算赤字从2008年占2.2%的GDP上涨到2009年的6%。
  
  By ring-fencing social spending, developing countries managed to protect some of their poorest people. Brazil expanded the coverage of its assistance programme for the poor, called Bolsa Familia, by over 1m households to 12m. India expanded to the whole country a programme that guarantees 100 days’ employment on public works each year to any rural household that wants it. China’s massive stimulus programme may have forestalled disaster in the migrant-labour force. Half the 140m labourers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009; a fifth stayed there, and another fifth could not find work when they returned to the cities. But as spending on infrastructure started to kick in, employment surged; by the middle of the year, joblessness among rural migrant workers was down to less than 3%. Beyond China, fear of social unrest associated with jobless migrants (as in 1997-98) has not materialised. A forthcoming study of 11 countries by Oxfam, a British NGO, found that migrants took new jobs, often at lower wages or with longer hours. In Vietnam some were even given money to stay in the cities by their families in the countryside—a kind of reverse remittance. But there was no mass return to the villages.
  
  通过政府的这种专项的支出,发展中国家成功地保护了国内最贫困的人口免受经济危机冲击。巴西实施的名为“Bolsa Familia”的针对穷人的社会救助项目,范围从一百万户扩大到一千两百万户。 对有意愿的农村家庭,印度政府也承诺为他们提供参与公共建设工程的工作机会,每年保证一百天的工时,这一项目也扩展到在全国范围内实施。中国的大规模刺激方案也预先避免了农民工的失业潮,2009年一亿四千万的农民工有一半从城市返回农村,他们中有五分之一留在农村,还有五分之一重返城市时发现还是找不到工作。但是随着政府开始兴建基础设施,就业率又大幅回升。到年中时期,无业农民工的比例已经降低到3%以下。中国以外的国家也没有出现1997至1998年那样的因民工失业引发的社会动荡。英国一个非政府组织oxfam对11个国家进行过研究,发现民工为了一份新工作通常愿意接受较低的工资或是更长的工时。在越南甚至出现了农村家庭给在城市打工的农民工寄钱的反哺现象,但是也没有出现大批农民工返乡的景象。
  
  
  Flexibility is strength
  灵活就是力量
  
  The Oxfam study describes the myriad ways in which countries resisted the recession. Remittances held up better than expected. Parents refused to take their children out of class, or else switched them from private to public schools. Some even cut down on their own food to keep children in education. There were outright job losses in some parts of countries’ economies, such as export sectors and mining. But the commoner reaction to falling demand was to cut hours and wages, reduce benefits and insist on more flexible working conditions. In other words, the main result of the slowdown was not unemployment (though there was some) but a move towards more flexible labour markets.
  
  Oxfam的研究描述了各国抵御经济危机的方法。外出打工者依然在向家里汇款,比预想状况要好。父母们不愿让孩子们辍学,只是把他们从私立学校转学到公立学校,有的家庭甚至以削减食物开支的方式保证孩子的教育。有些行业出现了大幅失业,比如出口和矿产领域,但是人们应对就业市场需求下降的普遍做法都是以减少工资,缩短工时,降低福利以及坚持实施弹性的工作制度来保住工作岗位。换句话说,经济危机带来的主要结果并不是失业(虽然确实存在一些失业),只是让就业市场更趋灵活。
  
  How long this can go on is unclear. Cash-transfer and make-work schemes are expensive: most poor countries cannot afford them. Worse, the poorest were more vulnerable than middle-income countries anyway because of the food-price spike of 2007-08: hence the rise in the number of hungry people to 1 billion, the highest figure since 1970. In general, the informal sector (home workers, ragpickers, street vendors) has been hit harder than the formal sector and is beyond the reach of government anti-poverty programmes. Although developing countries have done what they can, it would be wrong to think their people have escaped the recession entirely.
  
  这种情况要持续多久尚不清楚。现金汇寄和勉强保证就业的做法都耗资巨大,多数贫困国家负担不起。更糟糕的是,相比中等收入国家,2007-2008时的食物价格飙升让贫困国家所受打击更大,这也导致了全球遭受饥荒人口增加到十亿,达到了自1970年的最高水平。整体来说,那些自谋生路的人(家政工,拾荒者,街头摊贩)比在正式工作行业的员工受经济危机的打击更大,而且他们还不在政府扶贫项目范围以内。尽管发展中国家已使劲浑身解数,但认为发展中国家的人民已经完全摆脱经济衰退的想法是错误的。
  
  It is worth adding that not all the actions of developing-country governments have been equally enlightened. Emerging markets have been the worst sinners in a new round of protectionism. Whether you look at the number of new trade-damaging measures tracked by the World Trade Organisation, or the numbers of sectors or trading partners hurt, Russia, China and Indonesia are all among the top five protectionists; Argentina is in the top ten. Rich countries have been slightly less destructive. Still, as Simon Evenett, a professor of trade at the University of Saint Gallen, Switzerland, points out, this is not as dreadful as it might have been, or as it was in the 1930s. Only four countries have implemented restrictions affecting more than a quarter of their product lines: across-the-board tariff barriers are not the fashion. But as growth picks up and fights for market share increase, these restrictions could lay a basis for further trade disputes.
  
  再考虑到并非所有发展中国家的政府都是同等开明这一事实,情况就变得更糟糕了。新兴市场已经成为新一轮贸易保护主义的罪魁祸首。无论是世界贸易组织记录在案的不利贸易开放的措施的数量,还是沦为贸易保护主义受害者的贸易伙伴或者经济领域的数量,俄罗斯和印尼在这几个数目上居世界前五名之内,阿根廷排也在前十名之列,富裕国家在贸易保护方面也只是微微有些收敛。但是正如圣加勒大学的一位研究贸易的教授Saint Gallen指出的那样,贸易保护主义并不算严重,或者说不会像20世纪三十年代那么严重。只有四个国家对其四分之一以上产品采取限制措施,征收全盘贸易关税没有成为主流做法。但是随着经济增长回升和市场份额争夺,这些限制措施可能为日后的贸易争端埋下隐患。
  
  The tectonic consequence
  格局重构
  
  When the Earth’s tectonic plates grind against one another, they do not always move smoothly; sometimes they slip. A year after the West’s slump began to spread to emerging markets, it has become clear that the recession has been a moment of tectonic slippage, a brief but powerful acceleration in the deep-seated movement of economic power away from rich nations towards emerging markets.
  
  当地球的地壳板块互相咬啮时,它们并不是总能整体平稳移动,有时也会滑脱。西方经济危机波及新兴市场一年之后,形式已经开始明朗,经济衰退就仿佛是地壳板块之间滑脱的那一刻,过程虽然简短,但是却有力地加速了经济势力从富裕国家到新兴市场的内在交接。
  
  Since 2007, according to Goldman Sachs, the biggest emerging markets— Brazil, Russia, India and China—have accounted for 45% of global growth, almost twice as much as in 2000-06 and three times as much as in the 1990s. It used to be said that although emerging markets were contributing an expanding share of world growth, they could not claim to be the real engine for the global economy because final demand for their exports lay in America. But that argument is weaker now that China has overtaken America as the main market for the goods of the smaller Asian exporters. The recession showed that economic power is leaching away from the West faster than was thought.
  
  按照Goldman Sachs的观点,自2007年以来,几个大的新兴市场-巴西,俄罗斯,印度和中国贡献了世界经济45%的增长,这一比例是2000-2006年时的两倍,上世纪三十年代的三倍。有人曾说尽管新兴市场对经济增长贡献越来越大,但是他们还不能被称为全球经济的真正引擎,因为最终是美国主导着对他们的出口产品的需求。但是这一论点今天看来已不是那么有说服力了,因为中国已经替代美国称为其他亚洲国家出口产品的主要消费市场。这次危机也体现了西方国家经济势力的逝去比人们想象的还要快。
  
  Previous recessions have left most developing countries with their reputations for economic management in tatters, and with credibility to regain in capital markets. This time, it is the rich whose reputations have been damaged. The fiscal response of many emerging markets has enhanced their credibility, and they find themselves with an unexpected reputation for fiscal prudence. The debt-to-gdp ratio of the 20 largest emerging markets is only half that of the top 20 rich nations. Over the next few years rich countries’ debt will rise further, so emerging markets’ indebtedness will be only one-third of theirs by 2014. Already there are signs that financial markets are rewarding them for good behaviour. Sovereign-risk spreads have been lower in the biggest emerging markets than in some euro-zone countries; in 2009, Hong Kong did more initial-public offerings than New York or London.
  
  以前的经济危机让多数发展中国家政府在管理经济方面声名狼藉,再无信誉重振资本市场,这次经济危机却是那些富裕国家名声受损。许多新兴市场的应对危机的财政措施为自己赢得了更多声望,他们谨慎的财政举措也出人意料地在国际社会大受赞赏。最大的20个新兴市场的负债占GDP比重只有全球最富裕的20个国家的一半,在未来几年里,富裕国家的债务还会继续增加,这样到2014年新兴市场的负债就会降低为富裕国家的三分之一。有迹象表明,新兴市场的良好表现已经在金融市场得到回报,大的新兴市场存在的主权国债务风险也比欧元区一些国家低,2009年香港首次公开发行的股票也超过了纽约和伦敦。
  
  At the start of the crisis, a Mexican minister sighed: “At least this time it’s not our fault.” The comment was laden with sad irony: like everyone else, he expected that Mexico’s innocence would make no difference and that emerging markets would be hammered anyway. But they have not been. So far the story of global recession in emerging markets has had that rarest of themes: virtue rewarded.
  
  在这次经济危机开始的时候,一位墨西哥的部长感叹:“这次可不是我们的错”,语调中满是无奈的讥讽。和其他人一样,这位部长也预计无辜的墨西哥必定会受到经济危机影响,而且新兴市场无论怎样都会受到重创。但所幸事情并不是那么糟,目前为止,在这次全球经济衰退中,新兴市场讲述了一个极不寻常的故事:慎行终有回报。

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作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-14 12:39:45
  "de-leveraged" is very specific for banking industry (leveraged: use borrowed capital, expecting profits greater than interest payable")
  
  "foreign adventures", i think this refers to wars between nations.
  
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-14 14:15:24
  Argentina defaulted on its debt 阿根廷出现债务危机
  
  i think "出现债务危机" is bit ambiguous. "default debt" is action or counter-action due to the overwhelming debt.
  
  HTH.
  
  
  
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-14 14:19:33
  nor any significant backlash against capitalism or free markets.
    
  也没有明显的向资本主义或自由市场倒戈
  
  倒戈? OR反戈一击。
  
  got go and stay tuned.
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-01-14 15:43:30
  Thanks a lot! really
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-15 11:20:29
   forthcoming study of 11 countries by Oxfam, a British NGO, found that migrants took new jobs, often at lower wages or with longer hours.
    
  英国一个非政府组织oxfam对11个国家进行过研究,发现民工为了一份新工作通常愿意接受较低的工资或是更长的工时。
  
  migrant worker took the new job?
  willingly? i am not so sure. what do you think? when the choices are unemployed or work hard with less pay?
  
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-15 11:24:26
  Rich countries have been slightly less destructive.
  
  富裕国家在贸易保护方面也只是微微有些收敛
  
  less destructive than emerging markets/developing countries in terms of protectionism.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-15 11:27:48
  and with credibility to regain in capital markets.
  再无信誉重振资本市场
  
  lost credibility in capital market? absolutely;
  
  regain their credibility? they have to and they did.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-01-15 11:30:52
  virtue rewarded
  
  translation is OK. but i think it would be better to express that doing the right thing (being cautious is one of such) finally get rewarded.
  
  HTH.
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-01-15 21:33:27
  Thanks a lot! 已转达···
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