steady as she goes 渐行渐稳(转载)

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special report on Germany
  德国
  
  Steady as she goes
  渐行渐稳
  
  Angela Merkel and the art of the possible
  安格拉-默克尔:“可能”的艺术
  
  Mar 11th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
  
  Merkel and Westerwelle give it a whirl
  默克尔和威斯特维勒决定一试
  
  IT IS hard to think of another big country where a recent election was such a non-event. Both America and Japan responded to the economic crisis by electing governments of a different colour, and Britain may do the same in a few months’ time. In Germany, after a flaccid campaign last September, voters made a judicious adjustment. Angela Merkel was re-elected as chancellor but the grand coalition she had been heading did not survive. Her conservative union—the CDU plus its Bavarian sibling, the Christian Social Union (CSU)—acquired a new coalition partner, the liberal Free Democratic Party.
  某大国近期的大选结果令人提不起兴趣,这真是难以置信的事情。美国和日本都对经济危机作出反应,把原来的在野党选上了台,几个月之后这种事情在英国也可能重演。而在德国,通过去年九月的那场稀松的选举,选民们只是做出了一次明智的小调整,安格拉-默克尔再次当选总理,但她领导的执政大联盟却变了样。保守派的基民盟(CDU)和其在巴伐利亚的兄弟党基社盟(CSU),找到了新的合作伙伴---自由派的自民党 (FDP)。
  
  The result was both an endorsement and a rebuke. Voters rewarded Mrs Merkel for her deft handling of the economic crisis. Polls show that Germans’ trust in government rose during the crisis. Yet turnout in the election was a record low of 71%, and the two big parties that have dominated post-war politics were humiliated. The SPD’s 23% of the vote was a disaster, and the CDU and CSU’s combined 34% was their worst result in 50 years. Only the strong showing of the FDP, which won a record 15% of the vote, spared Mrs Merkel from having to continue a grand coalition that her party did not want.
  这个选举结果中蕴含着支持,也表达了不满。默克尔面对经济危机的灵活处置,获得了选民的回报。民调显示在经济危机期间,德国民众对政府的信任度呈上升态势,但大选投票率却只有71%,创历史新低。这使在二战后主宰德国政坛的两大政党颜面扫地。社民党(SPD)的得票率只有灾难性的23%,基民盟和基社盟组合的34%的得票率是近50年来的最低。唯有自由民主党表现抢眼,获得了创记录的15%得票率,这使默克尔不用与她不想合作之人共组执政联盟。
  
  Guido Westerwelle, the FDP’s leader and now Germany’s foreign minister, proclaims that the election result will bring about a “spiritual-political transformation”. His party is Germany’s most forthright defender of free enterprise and a smallish state. It returned to power after 11 years in opposition by promising to slash taxes and “make work pay again”. If Mr Westerwelle has his way, the new coalition will begin to move Germany out of the shadow of “father state”.
  现任德国外交部长,自民党领导人威斯特维勒宣称:选举结果将带来一次“精神和政治的双重变革”。他领导的党是德国对自由竞争企业和“小政府”最积极的支持者。该党在野11年后,凭借承诺大幅度减税和“重新实现劳有所得”,而重拾执政党地位。如果威斯特维勒的承诺能够实现,新的执政联盟将有望使德国走出“父亲之国”的阴影。
  
  Keep it mellow
  老成依旧
  
  But such transformations are not Mrs Merkel’s style. Her four-year partnership with the SPD, normally a political foe, was a soothing blend of measured progress and opportunistic retreats from Mr Schröder’s reforms (which many Social Democrats had come to regret). She sat out factional fights, making the course she eventually chose look Solomonic. Her stewardship of the new alliance is likely to be similarly cautious. She operates best behind the scenes and above the fray.
  但这种变革并不是默克尔的行事方式。在与原政敌社民党合作的四年中,与施罗德的改革(很多社民党人已经后悔了)相比,她更趋于调和---在某些方面稳步推进,另一方面则开了些机会主义的倒车。她置身于派系斗争之外,这使最终推行的路线方针充满睿智。她在当新执政联盟的大管家时,想必也会同样地谨慎。她运筹在幕后,着眼于纷争之上,表现绝佳。
  
  Nor are the voters in the mood for adventure. The FDP’s surprisingly strong showing during capitalism’s worst post-war crisis does not look like a mandate for less state and more market. Its campaign emphasised tax cuts rather than a leaner state. In a poll conducted for the German Banking Federation, 61% of voters wanted more social protection and just 23% favoured more market. The political middle, which Mrs Merkel intends to colonise, wants a balance between social sensitivity and economic responsibility, says Klaus-Peter Schöppner of TNS Emnid, a pollster. Mrs Merkel’s mandate is to reassure.
  选民们也没心思冒险。自民党在这场战后资本主义最严重的一次危机中的强势表现,并不像是弱化国家和强调市场化的意思。该党在选举中更多地强调了减税,而不是精简国家机构。在一次为德国联邦银行进行的民调中,61%的选民想要更多的社会保障,只有23%的人更偏好市场。而默克尔力图打入其中的政治中间派,想在社会敏感问题和履行经济职责之间找到一个平衡点,一家名为TNS Emnid机构的民调专家Klaus-Peter Schöppner如是说。默克尔的留任是一剂定心丸。
  
  Her style makes sense for many of Germany’s problems. It worked in the crisis, to which she reacted pragmatically and flexibly. It seems right for issues that require the patient pursuit of long-term solutions, such as education and the integration of ethnic minorities. But some of the hard choices now facing Germany may need a different approach.
  面对德国的诸多问题,默克尔的行事方式是可取的。她务实而又灵活地应对危机,并行之有效。现在看来,拿出足够的耐心以求一个长期解决方案似乎是正确的,如教育问题和少数民族融合问题。但目前德国面临的一些困难抉择可能亟需不同的处理方式。
  
  The new government has had a muddled start. The coalition agreement is specific mainly about two issues, taxes and education, notes Andreas Pinkwart, an FDP leader and vice-premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state. There is to be extra money for education and research, 欧24 billion of annual tax relief and a simpler income-tax system. This will have to be reconciled with a recent amendment to the constitution obliging the federal government to get close to eliminating its structural deficit by 2016, and the Länder to do so by 2020. As the anchor of Europe’s currency, the euro, Germany has an interim target of bringing its budget deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013. That is “an absolute must for Germany to be credible in the European context”, says Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, the central bank. This year and next the deficit is likely to exceed 5% of GDP. In appointing Wolfgang Schäuble, a tough-minded elder statesman of the CDU, as finance minister, Mrs Merkel signalled that she has every intention of meeting the deficit targets.
  新政府面临一个混乱的开局。北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州(该州为德国人口最多的州)社民党领导人,副州长Andreas Pinkwart表示:合作执政的纲领主要围绕两个问题,税收和教育。对于教育和科研应额外拨付资金,实现年度减税240亿欧元以及简化所得税税制。这将与最近一次 的内容达成一致, 案责成本州联邦政府到2016年基本消灭结构性赤字,全国则在2020年实现这一目标。关于欧元,这一欧洲汇率赖以稳定的基石,德国提出了一个过渡性的目标,到2013年将预算赤字降至GDP的3%以下。用德国央行 Axel Weber的话讲,“这是在欧洲大背景下,德国要想保住信用就必须达到的绝对目标。 而今明两年的赤字预计仍将超过GDP的5%。默克尔任命意志坚定的基民盟政界元老Wolfgang Schäuble出任财政部长,这是她决心实现削减赤字目标的信号。
  
  The government has not yet explained how it hopes to reconcile these goals. Deep spending cuts would fit with Mr Westerwelle’s ideas for a transformation. But the liberals have not made a consistent case for shrinking a state that is not particularly big by OECD standards (see chart 7), so attention has focused on the demand for tax cuts which, faced with record deficits, even most FDP voters now reject.
  政府方面还没有解释要如何达成这些目标。大规模削减开支可能正合威斯特维勒的变革之意。但自由派仍未能提出一个充分理由,来说明为何要削减在经合组织(OECD)的标准看来并不特别庞大的政府开支。(见表7) 。所以重点就就转移到了减税要求上,但在创纪录的高赤字面前,就算自民党人都会拒绝减税。
  
  
  
  So far Mrs Merkel has contained the clashes. She managed to keep down a rebellion by state premiers from her own party against the coalition’s first big initiative, an 欧8.5 billion package of tax cuts called the “growth acceleration law”. The next round is likely to spark further insurrection. The coalition’s approval rating has sagged, along with support for the FDP. Mrs Merkel’s strategy will become clear only after North Rhine-Westphalia’s own election in May, which will decide the survival of the state’s CDU-FDP coalition as well as the federal government’s majority in the Bundesrat, the upper house of the legislature.
  目前,默克尔面对意见不合仍保持着冷静。她之前力图平息本党内一名州长对执政联盟首次重大决议----名为“促进经济增长法案”的85亿欧元系列减税计划的反水行为。而下一轮计划有可能激起进一步的大反水。执政联盟支持率已经下滑,自民党也是如此。默克尔的策略只有在5月北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州选举结束后才会明晰,此次选举将可能决定基民盟-基社盟执政联盟的存亡,同时决定Bundesrat即上议院中的联邦政府多数派地位的归属。
  
  The more important battleground is the modernisation of Bismarck’s welfare state, which pays for pension, health and other benefits by taxing employment. According to one calculation, the unfunded future cost of these programmes pushes up public debt from 65% of GDP in 2007 to an implicit 250% of GDP. While investing more in the young, Germany must brace itself for ageing.
  更重要的交锋领域,是如何将俾斯麦所创的福利国家制度推向现代化。原制度通过向在职人口征税来支付养老金,医保和其他福利。据测算,这些透支未来的计划之开销,使德国国债水平从2007年的占GDP的65%上升至潜在的GDP的2.5倍。在年轻人身上投资的同时,德国也必须面对自身的人口老龄化问题。
  
  Some progress has been made on pensions. The grand coalition decided to raise the pension age, gradually, by two years to 67. But it also rolled back reform, for example by issuing a pre-election pledge that pensions would never drop even if wages did. “The next generation will pay dearly,” says Friedrich Breyer of the University of Konstanz. Partly because of the reforms so far, says Hans Fehr of the University of Würzburg, by 2030 pensioners “will experience a dramatic drop in income”. That argues for a further shift from state to private financing. The Bundesbank calculates that to keep pension contributions at their current rate of 20% of wages, the pension age will have to rise to 69 by 2060.
  养老金制度已取得一些进展。大执政联盟决定逐步将养老金发放起始年龄提高2年至67岁。同时也进行一些退让性的改革,比如在选举前做出保证,即使薪水降低,也不会降低养老金。“下一代人将会付出更多。” 维尔茨堡大学的Friedrich Breyer说,部分因为目前进行的改革,到2030年时养老金领取人的“收入将会大幅下降”。这就表明从国家到私人理财制度都需进行进一步的改变。德国央行认为,要维持养老金目前所占工资额的20%的比例,到2060年时,养老金发放年龄至少要升至69岁才行。
  
  
  Doctor, doctor
  医改 医改
  
  Reform of health care may be the government’s most ambitious undertaking. Germany is already the fourth-biggest spender on health after America, France and Switzerland. It does not have America’s uninsured millions but suffers from un-German inefficiency. Germans are Europe’s most dedicated patients, visiting their doctors an average of 18 times a year. Dr Rösler, the FDP health minister, wants to decouple health and employment costs and encourage patients to economise. His main idea is to convert part of workers’ contributions into a fixed monthly payment that would act as a sort of insurance premium. More efficient insurers could charge lower fees. To lighten the burden for low earners, Dr Rösler would subsidise them through the tax system.
  医疗体制改革也许是政府最具雄心的事业。德国已经是世界上医疗开支第四大的国家了,仅次于美国、法国和瑞士。德国不像美国那样,有着千百万未上保险的人,却没有德国式的效率。德国和欧洲的老病号们,平均每年拜访他们的医生18次。来自自民党的卫生部长Rösler医生,不想使医疗和就业成本变化造成病人舍不得钱看病。他主张把工人上交的税款中的一部分转换成每月定额支付方式,算作某种保险费。效率更高的保险公司可以降低收费。为减轻低收入者的负担,Rösler将通过税收系统对他们予以补贴。
  
  Hartz IV, though only five years old, is also ripe for reform. Some 5m people considered capable of working collect the welfare benefit but only 1.4m are actually employed. Activating the economically inert group would pay multiple dividends: it would spur growth, channel immigrants into the labour market and, some economists believe, give a fillip to the underdeveloped service sector, easing Germany’s dependence on exports. Currently people with low-paid jobs can keep part of the benefit, which ought to encourage work, but the settings are skewed. Once income exceeds 欧100 a month, benefits quickly tail off, in effect imposing a tax rate of 80%.
  “哈茨四号方案”(注1)虽然问世仅仅5年,但也到了该改时候了。有约500万具有工作能力的人在享受着福利,但真正在工作的却仅有140万人。激活这些经济上的惰性人群所能带来的好处不止一种:可以刺激经济增长,可以向劳动力市场输送移民。一些经济学家认为,这样做还可以促进欠发达地区服务业的发展,降低德国对出口的依赖。目前从事低收入职业的人可以享受到部分福利,鼓励他们工作,但具体制度有欠公平。一旦月收入超过100欧元,福利就迅速缩水,因为要承受高达80%的税率。
  
  All of this is highly contentious. Unions howled at the increase in the retirement age to 67. Dr Rösler’s idea of a flat fee for rich and poor alike is vociferously opposed by the CSU, and the subsidy plan fits ill with the FDP’s enthusiasm for tax cuts. The constitutional court recently told the government to rip up its formula for setting Hartz IV benefits and start anew. Most reforms imply a shift in responsibility from state to citizen. With more than 40% of German voters receiving a state transfer of some kind (including pensions), politicians tread carefully.
  所有这一切都充满争议。工会对延长退休年龄至67岁的意见大为抱怨。Rösler对于穷人和富人一碗水端平的主张也遭到基社盟的激烈反对,对低收入者的补贴计划也遭热衷于减税的自民党的反对。宪法法院近日要求政府将哈茨四号方案的制度彻底推倒重来。大部分的改革都反映了上至国家下到公民的一种责任上的转变。在40%多的国民愿意接受国家做出某种改变的情况下(包括养老金改革),政治家们正小心前行着。
  
  Mrs Merkel wants to introduce reforms, but whether and when she does so will depend on her keen sense of what is politically possible. The calculation will not be simple. Germans have a low tolerance for measures that widen inequality. The Agenda 2010 reforms tested that tolerance, alienating the SPD’s core supporters and fuelling the rise of the ex-communist Left Party. More than two-thirds of Germans disapprove of earlier reforms to pensions and health care, according to a 2007 poll by the University of Stuttgart. Even the FDP now takes pains to show a social conscience, which is one reason why during the election campaign it said so little about slimming down the state.
  默克尔有意领导改革,但她是否真的会改革,何时改革则取决于她用敏锐的判断力,确定是否在政治上有推行改革的可能。这个判断可不易做。德国人对扩大不平等现象的容忍度很低。2010年改革纲要就是对这种容忍度的一次测试,结果疏远了社民党的中坚支持者,使前共产主义的左翼政党得以崛起。2007年斯图加特大学进行的一次民调显示,有三分之二的德国民众反对早些年的养老金和医疗体制改革。就连自民党现在也煞费苦心地表现出一些社会良知,这也是该党在选举期间对精简国家机构方面言之甚少的原因之一。
  
  Yet as pensioners tug one way, upwardly mobile young voters pull another. They “don’t want to be spoon-fed” by the state, says Peer Steinbrück, who was finance minister in the grand-coalition government. Mr Westerwelle recently tapped into popular resentment against Hartz IV beneficiaries by complaining that in Germany “there seem to be only people who get tax money but no one who earns it.” Heinz Bude of the Hamburg Institute for Social Research detects a middle-class disenchantment with welfare, akin to America’s before Ronald Reagan.
  前有领养老金的人扯着后腿,后有地位渐显的年轻选民们拽着胳膊。曾任执政大联盟财政部长的Peer Steinbrück说,这些年轻人不想被国家“拿着勺喂”。威斯特维勒日前就因为其针对哈茨四号方案的受益人的一句话激起了民愤,他抱怨说:能分到税款的人虽多,但好像没有一个人配拿这个钱。汉堡社会研究所的Heinz Bude发现,中产阶级对福利制度已不报幻想,这一情况与里根时代之前的美国相类似。
  
  The North Rhine-Westphalia election will not settle the matter, but it will give Mrs Merkel’s government its first firm indication of whether it is on the right track. Jürgen Rüttgers, the state’s CDU premier (and the party’s most vocal defender of “social” policies), is likely to be re-elected. But his coalition with the FDP could lose its majority, which could force the CDU to form either a grand coalition with the SPD or a partnership with the Greens. That would be a rebuff to Mrs Merkel’s government and perhaps a fatal blow to Mr Westerwelle’s transformation agenda.
  北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州的选举解决不了这些问题,但可以首次给默克尔一个稳定的信号来确定一切是否步入正轨。基民盟在该州的 Jürgen Rüttgers,也是本党“社会”政策最敢言的捍卫者,有望连任。但他与自民党的联盟有可能失去多数地位,这迫使基民盟要么与社民党组成联盟,要么与绿党合作。若果真如此,那将是默克尔政府的一次失败,并会给威斯特维勒的变革计划造成致命打击。
  
  
  Colour combinations
  五颜六色
  
  But Mrs Merkel might sense an opportunity. The CDU and the Greens already govern jointly in two small states, in Hamburg by themselves and in Saarland as part of a “Jamaica coalition” (named for the colours of the country’s flag) that includes the FDP. Such exotic alliances are bound to become more common. The rise of the Left Party makes it more difficult for traditional coalitions such as CDU-FDP to build majorities in the Bundestag. A CDU alliance with the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia could pave the way for something similar at federal level after the 2013 election.
  但默克尔也许察觉到机遇的来临了。在两个小州,基民盟和绿党已实现了联合执政。在汉堡是两党联合,在萨尔,包括了自民党在内的三党组成“牙买加联盟”(由牙买加国旗的颜色而得名)。这类异乎寻常的联盟正变得愈加普遍。左翼政党的崛起,使诸如基民盟-基社盟这种传统联盟在上议院中越发难以占据多数地位。基民盟与绿党在北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州的结盟,将为2013年大选后两党在国家层面上的结盟铺平道路。
  
  The CDU’s origins are in the Catholic Centre Party of pre-war Germany, the Greens’ in the protest movements of the 1960s. But the CDU has embraced environmentalism, and today’s Greens are mostly prosperous burghers with a liberal bent. Entrepreneurs in Baden-Württemberg, another candidate for such a coalition, vote CDU but their wives are often Green, says Winfried Kretschmann, the party’s parliamentary leader in the state. Such a partnership would be harder to forge at federal level, but Mrs Merkel might like to have a go. Whatever the colour of the coalition, she intends to head it.
  基民盟的前身是二战前的天主教中心党,绿党则起源于1960年代的抗议运动。但基民盟已信奉环保主义,而今天的绿党成员大都市具有自由倾向的富裕市民。在巴登-弗腾堡州的党派“企业家”是两党结盟的又一候选对象,“他们支持基民盟,但他们的妻子通常支持绿党。” “ 企业家”在州议会的领导人如是说。这种合作在联邦层面上很难实现,但默克尔或许会决心一试。不管成员如何变化,她都要领导执政联盟走下去。
  
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  注1
  
  哈茨方案(The Hartz concept)是德国政府针对失业人口实施救济、培训和促进再就业的社会福利方案。源于2002年2月施罗德政府对失业救济方面的社会福利进行改革,组成一个智囊班子,头目是Peter Hartz,因此这一改革方案以Hartz命名,从2003年1月实施Hartz I方案,以后又不断完善,到2005年1月年推出Hartz IV方案,也称哈茨4号方案。
  2010年2月9日,德国联邦宪法法院裁定哈茨4号方案部分违宪,这意味着这一方案将进行重大改编[1]。2月16日德国议会就这一问题展开激烈讨论,场面十分激烈,并出现了罕见的人身攻击语言[2]。
  http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%93%88%E8%8C%A8%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88
  
  译者:daimon(经济学人中文论坛)
  http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/

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作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:29:41
  If Mr Westerwelle has his way, the new coalition will begin to move Germany out of the shadow of “father state”.
    如果威斯特维勒的承诺能够实现,新的执政联盟将有望使德国走出“父亲之国”的阴影。
  
  would you care to explain "father state"?
  state as nation or state as "state of the union" state?
  father state as state of old tradition or my mother lander (fatherland in german is the motherland in english) or something else?
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:32:00
  The political middle, which Mrs Merkel intends to colonise,
  
  colonize, here means win over.
  
  HTH.
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:34:16
  As the anchor of Europe’s currency, the euro, Germany has an interim target of bringing its budget deficit below 3% of GDP by 2013. 关于欧元,这一欧洲汇率赖以稳定的基石,德国提出了一个过渡性的目标
  
  (German) As the anchor of the Europe's currency, the EURO, ...
  
  the anchor is German, not EURO.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:37:49
  so far Mrs Merkel has contained the clashes. She managed to keep down a rebellion
    目前,默克尔面对意见不合仍保持着冷静。她之前力图平息本党内一名州长对执政联盟首次重大决议----名为“促进经济增长法案”的85亿欧元系列减税计划的反水行为
  
  contained the clashes, means prevent the in-fight, or keep the impact of fight to minimum.
  
  managed to keep down: successfully keep down.
  
  HTH.
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:42:53
  a further shift from state to private financing.
  从国家到私人理财制度都需进行进一步的改变。
  
  you are not kidding, are you?
  
  changing from financing provided by state to financing by private sector.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:45:13
  rolled back reform,
   进行一些退让性的改革 :))
  
  repeal the previous reform
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:47:01
  Germans are Europe’s most dedicated patients,
  
  德国和欧洲的老病号们,
  
  this is either wild imagination or lack of.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:51:25
  wants to decouple health and employment costs and encourage patients to economise.,
  
  不想使医疗和就业成本变化造成病人舍不得钱看病
  
  i have a different interpretation:
  
  wants to 1. decouple heath (cost) and employment cost (contribution) and 2. encourage patient to economize. because both measures will reduce healthcare cost.
  
  
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:54:00
  benefits quickly tail off, in effect imposing a tax rate of 80%.
   福利就迅速缩水,因为要承受高达80%的税率。
  
  i think this means "benefits quickly tail off, that is equivalent of imposing a tax rate of 80%.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 11:56:36
  Mr Westerwelle recently tapped into popular resentment against Hartz IV beneficiaries by complaining that in Germany “there seem to be only people who get tax money but no one who earns it.”
  
  威斯特维勒日前就因为其针对哈茨四号方案的受益人的一句话激起了民愤,他抱怨说:能分到税款的人虽多,但好像没有一个人配拿这个钱。
  
  your translation turn thing 180 degree around.
  tap into: utilize, take advantage of.
  
  HTH.
作者:crzhao 时间:2010-03-23 12:07:03
  Entrepreneurs in Baden-Württemberg, another candidate for such a coalition, vote CDU but their wives are often Green, says Winfried Kretschmann, the party’s parliamentary leader in the state.
  
  在巴登-弗腾堡州的党派“企业家”是两党结盟的又一候选对象,“他们支持基民盟,但他们的妻子通常支持绿党。” “ 企业家”在州议会的领导人如是说。
  
  i don't think Entrepreneurs is a party.
  candidate for such a coalition, may not be candidate for election, i think it means candidate to become part of the coalition (voting for CDU...)
  says Winfried Kretschmann, the party’s parliamentary leader in the state. (i think she is Green party memeber)
  
  HTH.
  
楼主Somers2009 时间:2010-03-24 10:32:18
  非常感谢楼上!这几天的点评均已转达译者,欢迎继续关注。
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