[翻译]12月21日FT财经报道《美元下跌对各方都不是好事》中英文对照(转载)

楼主:张无忌之1989 时间:2004-12-21 08:20:00 点击:667 回复:4
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  美元下跌对各方都不是好事
  Why the dollar’s fall is not to be welcomed
  
  
  天性乐观的人士认为,在世界经济必要的重新调整中,美元下跌是其中的一部分。美元汇率若不调整,美国经常账户赤字将继续急速扩张。目前它占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的5%至6%,到2008年可能增至8%,2010年可能增至12%。
   Congenital optimists see the dollar’s fall as part of a necessary rebalancing of the world economy. Without a change in exchange rates, the US current account deficit is on an explosive path. It could widen from its current 5-6 per cent of US gross domestic product to 8 per cent in 2008 and 12 per cent in 2010.
  
  实际上,对于规模如此庞大的赤字,外国人本来是不愿提供资金的,尤其因为这种赤字反映了长期预算赤字,而不是高水平的私人投资。到某个时候,外国投资者将中断资金供应,那时美元和美国经济就将崩溃。因此,与其以后看到美元骤然、且可能是灾难性地下跌,不如现在就让美元平稳、适度地下挫,以减少美国经常账户赤字。
   In reality, deficits of this magnitude are not something that foreigners would willingly finance, especially in so far as they reflected chronic budget deficits rather than high levels of private investment. At some point foreign investors would pull the plug, and the dollar and the US economy would come crashing down. A smooth and moderate decline in the dollar that narrows the US current account now is thus preferable to a sudden and potentially catastrophic fall later.
  
  问题在于平稳调整是否已经太迟。经常账户是储蓄与投资之差,因此若要缩减美国经常账户赤字,需要增加储蓄同时降低投资。而美元下跌往往会推动利率上升,从而实现这种情形。随着亚洲各央行减少购买美国国债,并抛售一些它们目前持有的美国国债,美国国债收益率将面临上升压力。
   The question is whether or not it is already too late for a smooth adjustment. The current account is the difference between savings and investment. Narrowing the US deficit will therefore require some combination of increased savings and lower investment. The falling dollar will bring this about by tending to drive interest rates up. As Asian central banks curtail their purchases of US Treasury securities and sell some of their existing holdings, there will be upward pressure on US Treasury yields.
  
  此外,当美元下跌时,美国进口商品价格将有上升压力,而且更大的通胀压力将普遍出现。作为回应,美联储将不得不比当前预期更快地升息。利率上升将提高借贷成本,并减慢投资增长。它们将对资产估价(包括住房价格)产生负面影响。美国家庭将不再依靠资本增值生活,而不得不再次开始储蓄。随着投资减少和储蓄增加,经常账户赤字将开始收窄。
   Moreover, as the dollar falls, there will be upward pressure on US import prices and more inflationary pressure generally. In response, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates faster than currently expected. Higher interest rates will make borrowing more expensive and slow investment growth. They will have a negative impact on asset valuations, including house prices. US households, no longer living off capital gains, will have to start saving again. With investment down and saving up, the current account deficit will narrow.
  
  不幸的是,这种乐观结论并非故事的结局。消费和投资同时大幅下降将意味着美国经济出现衰退。结论如此显而易见,唯一的问题就是:为什么市场还没有预测到这一点?
   Unfortunately, this happy observation is not the end of the story. A significant decline in both consumption and investment will mean a recession in the US. This conclusion is so obvious that the only question is why the markets are not forecasting it already.
  
  答案想必是投资者不相信美元下跌将导致通货膨胀大幅上升。历史数据表明,美元下跌10%将令通胀率上升3%,继而意味着贴现率上升450个基本点。显然,我们尚未看到任何这样的情况。目前的国债通胀保值债券息差(传统国债证券收益率和通胀保值债券收益率之间的差额)表明,通胀预期值仅有小幅上升。或许是“新经济”为美国经济提供了更多灵活性和弹性,以至于美元贬值和通胀间的传统关系不再持续。那么,有关利率大幅上升的担心也许被夸大了。
   The answer, presumably, is that investors do not believe that the dollar’s decline will produce a significant increase in inflation. The historical data say that a 10 per cent fall in the dollar produces 3 additional percentage points of inflation, which in turn implies a 450 basis-point increase in the discount rate. Clearly, we have not seen anything like this yet. Treasury inflation-protected securities spreads (the difference between yields on conventional Treasury securities and Tips) suggest only a modest increase in inflationary expectations. Maybe the “new economy” has rendered the US economy more flexible and resilient so that the traditional relationship between dollar depreciation and inflation no longer holds. Perhaps, then, fears of significantly higher interest rates are exaggerated.
  
  但即使这种观点是正确的,它也只是意味着,美元将不得不进一步下跌,以产生足够的通胀压力,来迫使美联储升息。美元下跌的根源,是人们认为美国经常账户赤字无法持续。因此外国人将继续抛售美元,直至这一赤字缩减。这反过来又意味着,美元将持续走低,直至美国的通胀水平升至美联储不得不升息的程度。这难免意味着,美国经济就将减速,或者更可能的情况是陷入衰退。
   But even if this observation is correct, it just means that the dollar will have to fall further to generate enough inflationary pressure to force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. At the root of the dollar’s decline is the view that the US current account deficit is unsustainable. Foreigners will therefore keep selling dollars until it narrows. This in turn means that the dollar will keep falling until US inflation heats up to the point where the Fed does indeed have to raise interest rates. The implication, that the US economy will slow or more likely succumb to recession, is unavoidable.
  
  问题在于是否有人能接替美国的角色。要使世界经济避免严重滑坡,美国消费和投资的减少必须由其它地方消费和投资的增加来抵消。但在什么地方呢?欧洲经济增长正处于停滞状态。欧洲央行尚未意识到有必要采取货币刺激手段。中国经济在降温,并且当中国允许其货币升值时,其经济将进一步降温。日本微弱的复苏将令人失望,因为日本不得不增加税收以控制本国扶摇直上的债务。四国集团(美国、英国、日本和德国)以外的国家都太小,因此都无足轻重。
   The question is whether there is anyone to take up the slack. For the world economy to avoid a serious downturn, less consumption and investment in the US will have to be offset by more consumption and investment elsewhere. But where? Europe is stagnant, and the European Central Bank has shown no awareness of the need for monetary stimulus. China is cooling off, and it will cool off more as it allows its currency to strengthen. Japan’s modest recovery will disappoint now that it has to raise taxes to control its own spiralling debt. Countries outside the Group of Four nations (the US, the UK, Japan and Germany) are simply too small to make a difference.
  
  这意味着,目前正在进行的美国经常账户赤字调整,不仅将令美国陷入衰退,还将令世界其它地区陷入衰退。欢迎美元下跌的乐观人士应当三思。
   The implication is that the correction of the US current account deficit that is now getting under way will mean a recession not just for the US but for the rest of the world. The optimists who are welcoming the dollar’s fall should think again.
  
  本文作者是加州大学伯克利分校的经济学和政治学教授。
   The writer is professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley
  
  译者/李裕
  

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作者:石头914 时间:2004-12-24 16:50:35
  thank you for your translation
作者:石头914 时间:2004-12-24 16:54:50
  merry christmas
作者:我想要车 时间:2004-12-27 09:44:29
  希望能经常发些来.
作者:天涯甜雅 时间:2004-12-27 10:06:03
  好执著哦
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