《全球欧洲展望报告》51期前言[已扎口]

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GEAB N°51 is available! Systemic global crisis - 2011: The ruthless year, at the crossroads of three roads of global chaos
  
  
  - Public announcement GEAB N°51 (January 16, 2011) -
  
  《全球欧洲展望报告》(GEAB, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin)51期已发表!
  
  系统性的全球危机 - 2011年:严酷的一年,在三个全局混沌道路的三岔路口
  
  
  - 公开发表《全球欧洲展望报告》第51期(2011年1月16号) -
  
   This GEAB issue marks the fifth anniversary of the publication of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. In January 2006, on the occasion of the first issue, the LEAP/E2020 team indicated that a period of four to seven years was opening up which would be characterized by the “Fall of the Dollar Wall”, an event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall which resulted, in the following years, in the collapse of the communist bloc then that of the USSR. Today, in this GEAB issue, which presents our thirty-two anticipations for 2011, we believe that the coming year will be a pivotal year in the roll out of this process between 2010 and 2013. It will be, in any case, a ruthless year because it will mark the entry into the terminal phase of the world before the crisis (1).
  
   这期《全球欧洲展望报告》是刊物诞生五周年庆。 2006年1月,在本刊第一期,LEAP/E2020团队表示,在过去的4至7年期间,具有“美元柏林墙倒塌”的特点,一个与柏林墙倒塌相似的事件。由于柏林墙的倒塌,在接下来的几年,导致了共产主义阵营,直到苏联的崩溃。今天,在这期《全球欧洲展望报告》中,其中介绍了我们对2011年的三十二个预测,我们认为,未来一年将是这种进程在2010年到2013年之间发展突出和关键的一年。在任何情况下,这将是严酷的一年,因为这标志着世界步入危机前的最后步伐(1)。
  
  Since September 2008, when the evidence of the global and systemic nature of the crisis became clear to all, the United States, and behind it the Western countries, were content with palliative measures that have merely hidden the undermining effects of the crisis on the foundations of the present-day international system. 2011 will, according to our team, mark the crucial moment when, on the one hand, these palliative measures see their anesthetic effect fade away whilst, in contrast, the consequences of systemic dislocation in recent years will dramatically surge to the forefront (2).
  
  自2008年9月,当危机的全球性和系统性的证据都被清楚地认识到时,美国,和它背后的西方国家,都满足于仅可隐藏对当今国际体系的基础带来破坏作用的这场危机所采取的姑息性措施。 2011年,按照我们团队的预测,将显示关键时刻的到来,一方面,这些治标措施的麻醉效果逐渐消失,反之,近几年系统性错位的后果将戏剧性地突出在人们眼前(2) 。
  
  In summary, 2011 will be marked by a series of violent shocks that will explode the faulty safety devices put in place since 2008 (3) and will carry off, one by one, the “pillars” on which the “Dollar Wall” has rested for decades. Only the countries, communities, organizations and individuals which, over the last three years, have actually undertaken to learn the lessons from the current crisis to distance themselves as quickly as possible from the pre-crisis patterns, values and behavior will get through this year unscathed; the others will be carried away in the procession of monetary, financial, economic, social and political difficulties that 2011 holds.
  
  总之,2011年的特点将是一系列的暴力冲击,这些冲击将引爆自2008年起实施的那些伪安全装置(3),并逐一带走支持了“美元墙”数十年的那些“支柱”。只有在过去三年,从过去危机模式,价值观和行为中真正学会了远离当前危机的国家,社区,组织和机构才能渡过今年的劫数,其余的将被2011年所特有的货币,财政,经济,社会和政治困境的浪潮卷走。
  
  Thus, as we believe that 2011 will, globally, be the most chaotic year since 2006, the date of the beginning of our work on the crisis, in this GEAB issue our team has focused on 32 anticipations for 2011, which also include a number of recommendations to deal with future shocks. Thus, this GEAB issue offers a kind of map forecasting financial, monetary, political, economic and social shocks for the next twelve months.
  
  因此,我们认为2011年将在全球范围内,是我们开始处理危机的日子2006年以来最混乱的一年。在这期《全球欧洲展望报告》中,我们团队将焦点集中在对2011年的三十二个预测,包括数个以应付未来冲击的建议。如此,这期《全球欧洲展望报告》提供了一个预测未来十二个月的财政,货币,政治,经济和社会冲击的路径。
  
  If our team believes that 2011 will be the worst year since 2006, the beginning of our anticipation work on the systemic crisis, it’s because it’s at the crossroads of three paths to global chaos. Absent fundamental treatment of the causes of the crisis, since 2008 the world has only gone back to take a better jump forward.
  
  之所以我们团队认为,自2006年我们开始处理系统危机的期待性工作以来,2011年将是最糟糕的一年,是因为它正处于全球动荡的三叉道的十字路口。因缺乏处理危机的基本手段,自2008年以来,全世界只是以倒退的办法来寻找更好的出路。
  
  A bloodless international system
  The first path that the crisis can take to cause world chaos is simply a violent and unpredictable shock. The dilapidated state of the international system is now so advanced that its cohesion is at the mercy of any large-scale disaster (4). Just look at the inability of the international community to effectively help Haiti over the past year (5), the United States to rebuild New Orleans for six years, the United Nations to resolve the problems in Darfur, Côte d’’Ivoire for a decade, the United States to progress peace in the Middle East, NATO to beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Security Council to control the Korean and Iranian issues, the West to stabilize Lebanon, the G20 to end the global crisis be it financial, food, economic, social, monetary, ... to see that over the whole range of climatic and humanitarian disasters, like economic and social crises, the international system is now powerless.
  
  一个不流血的国际体系
  这场危机可以给世界造成动荡的第一个途径,是以简单的暴力带来难以预料的冲击。当今这个破旧不堪的国际体系是如此地发达,以致其凝聚力受不了任何大规模的灾难(4)。看看国际社会在过去一年有效帮助海地的不堪(5),美国重建新奥尔良六年,联合国解决在达尔富尔,科特迪瓦的问题花了十年,美国在中东的和平进程,北约在阿富汗打击塔利班,安理会对朝鲜和伊朗问题,西方为稳定黎巴嫩,20国集团为结束全球危机的努力,无论是金融,粮食,经济,社会,金融,...关乎以上的整体气候和人道主义灾难的范围,如经济和社会危机,国际系统现在都无能为力。
  
  In fact, since the mid-2000s at least, all the major global players, at their head of course the United States and its cortege of Western countries, do no more than give out information, or gesticulate. In reality, all bets are off: The crisis ball rolls and everyone holds their breath so it doesn’t fall on their square. But gradually the increasing risks and issues of the crisis have changed the casino’s roulette wheel into Russian roulette. For LEAP/E2020, the whole world has begun to play Russian roulette (6), or rather its 2011 version, “American Roulette” with five bullets in the barrel.
  
  事实上,至少自2000年代中期以来,全球所有主要参与者,均以美国和它的随从西方国家的马首是瞻,不过发发信息,或打打手势。实际上,所有的赌注已下完:随着危机球的滚动,每个人都屏着呼吸看着球不要落入他们自己的地盘。但渐渐的越来越大的风险和危机问题已经变成俄罗斯轮盘赌。对于LEAP/E2020,整个世界已经开始玩俄罗斯轮盘(6),或者更确切地说,它的2011年版,五发子弹在膛的“美国轮盘赌”。
  
  Monthly progression of the FAO food index (2010) and the price of principal foodstuffs (2009/2010) (base 100: averaged over 2002-2004) - Source: FAO/Crikey, 01/2011
  粮农组织的食品指数(2010年)和主要食品价格(2009/2010)每月进展(基100:平均超过2002-2004) - 来源:粮农组织/ Crikey,01/2011
  
  Soaring commodity prices (food, energy (7),...) should remind us of 2008 (8). It was indeed in the six months preceding Lehman Brothers and Wall Street’s collapse that the previous episode of sharp increases in commodity prices was set. And the actual causes are the same as before: a flight from financial and monetary assets in favour of “concrete” investments. Last time the big players fled the mortgage market and everything that depended on it, as well as the U.S. Dollar; today they are fleeing all financial stocks, Treasury bonds (9) and other public debts. Therefore, we have to wait for a time between Spring and Autumn 2011 for the explosion of the quadruple bubble of Treasury bonds, public debt (10), bank balance sheets (11) and real estate (American, Chinese, British, Spanish,... and commercial (12)), all taking place against a backdrop of a heightened currency war (13).
  
  飙升的大宗商品价格(粮食,能源(7 ),...)应该提醒我们注意2008年(8)。事实是在商品价格大幅上涨六个月后雷曼兄弟和华尔街才崩溃的。而实际原因和以前一样:对金融和货币资产“稳固”投资的飞涨。最后大玩家逃离了抵押贷款市场和依赖于它的一切事物,包括美元;如今,他们正在逃离的所有金融类股,国债(9)和其他公共债务。因此,我们只能等待至2011年春秋之际的美国国债,公共债务(10),银行资产负债表(11)和房地产(美国,中国,英国,西班牙,..及商业方面(12))等用于对抗一场被升高的货币战争风险(13)的四联泡沫破碎的时机。
  
  The inflation induced by US, British and Japanese Quantitative Easing and similar stimulus measures of the Europeans and Chinese will be one of the destabilizing factors in 2011 (14). We will come back to this in more detail in this issue. But what is now clear with respect to what is happening in Tunisia (15), is that this global context, especially the rise in food and energy prices, now leads on to radical social and political shocks (16). The other reality that the Tunisian case reveals is the impotence of the French, Italian or American “godfathers” to prevent the collapse of a “friendly regime” (17).
  
  由美国,英国和日本的量化宽松及欧洲人和中国类似的经济刺激措施引起的通货膨胀将成为2011年(14)的不稳定因素之一。本期对此我们会有更详细的论述。但是现在该正视的是发生在突尼斯的事件(15),这种全球范围内,特别是食品和能源价格上涨,引起激进的社会和政治冲击(16)。突尼斯事件的其他现实情况表明,“教父”法国,意大利或美国防止“友好政权”崩溃的重要性(17)。
  
  Impotence of the major global geopolitical players
  And this impotence of the major global geopolitical players is the other path that the crisis can use to produce world chaos in 2011. In effect, one can place the major G20 powers in two groups whose only point in common is that they are unable to influence events decisively.
  
  全球地缘政治主要参与者的无能
  而这种全球地缘政治的主要参与者的无能是另一路径,危机可以用它来产生2011年世界的混乱。实际上,可以将20国集团放置在两个组,他们唯一的共通点是没有影响重大事件的决定性权力。
  
  On one side we haves a moribund West with, on the one hand, the United States, for whom 2011 will show that its leadership is no more than fiction (see this issue) and which is trying to freeze the entire international system in its configuration of the early 2000s (18), and on the other hand we have Euroland, “sovereign” in the pipeline, which is currently mainly focused on adapting to its new environment (19) and new status as an emerging geopolitical entity (20), and which, therefore, has neither the energy nor the vision necessary to influence world events (21).
  
  一边,一个垂死的西方,美国这部分,在21世纪初试图冻结其配置的整个国际体系(18),对他们来说,2011年将表明它的领导没有比小说多(见本期),另一部分欧元区,“主权”还在管道里,目前主要是适应新的环境(19)和作为一个地缘政治实体的新地位(20),因此,既没有精力也没有必要的眼光去影响世界事件(21)。
  
  And on the other side are the BRIC countries (with China and Russia in particular) who are, at the moment, proving to be incapable of taking control of all or part of the international system and whose only action is therefore limited to quietly undermine what remains of the foundations of the pre-crisis order (22).
  
  而在另一边的金砖四国(尤其是中国和俄罗斯),此刻,证明并无全部或部分控制国际体系的能力,其唯一的行动就是有限度地悄悄地挖这个次序在危机发生之前残余基础的墙角(22)。
  
  Ultimately, impotence is widespread (23) at the international community level, increasing not only the risk of major shocks, but also the significance of the consequences of these shocks. The world of 2008 was taken by surprise by the violent impact of the crisis, but paradoxically the international system was better equipped to respond being organized around an undisputed leader (24). In 2011, this is no longer the case: not only is there no undisputed leader, but the system is bloodless as we have seen above. And the situation is aggravated further by the fact that the societies of many countries in the world are on the verge of socio-economic break-up.
  
  总而言之,无能是国际社会的普遍水平(23),增加的不仅是重大冲击的风险,也包括这些系列冲击产生的影响。 2008年的世界震惊于危机的猛烈冲击,为更好地应对危机围绕着一个无可争议的领导者组织起来的,却是一个似是而非的国际体系(24)。 2011年,这已不再是这样的:不仅没有无可争议的领导者,如前所述,该系统已是个失血的系统。形势在进一步恶化,世界上许多国家已处在社会经济崩溃的边缘。
  
  US petrol prices (2009-2011) - Source: GasBuddy, 01/2011
  
  美国汽油价格(2009-2011年) - 来源:GasBuddy,01/2011
  
  Societies on the edge of socio-economic break-up
  This is particularly the case in the United States and Europe where three years of crisis are beginning to weigh very heavily on the socio-economic and therefore political balance. US households, now insolvent in their tens of millions, oscillate between sustained poverty (25) and rage against the system. European citizens, trapped between unemployment and the dismantling of the welfare state (26), are starting to refuse to pay the bills for financial and budget crises and are beginning to look for culprits (banks, the Euro, government political parties…).
  
  处于社会经济崩溃边缘的社会
  美国和欧洲正是这样的情况,三年危机非常沉重地开始施压于社会经济和政治稳定。美国家庭,资不抵债达数千万,在持续贫困(25)和对体制的愤怒之间摆蘯。 欧洲居民,被困在失业和国家福利消失之中(26),开始拒绝为财政和预算法案的危机支付账单,并开始寻找打劫他们的匪徒(银行,欧元,政府...政党)。
  
  But amongst the emerging powers too, the violent transition which constitutes the crisis is leading societies towards situations of break-up: in China, the need to control expanding financial bubbles is hampered by the desire to improve the lot of whole sectors of society such as the need for employment for tens of millions of casual workers; in Russia, the weakness of the social security system fits badly with the enrichment of the elite, just as in Algeria shaken by riots. In Turkey, Brazil and India, everywhere the rapid change these countries are seeing is triggering riots, protests and terrorist attacks. For reasons that are sometimes contradictory, growth for some, penury for others, across the globe our diverse societies tackle 2011 in a context of strong tensions and socio-economic break-up, which have the making of political time bombs.
  
  新兴大国之间也一样,剧烈的转折导致的危机使社会走向崩溃的情况:在中国,控制不断扩大的金融泡沫的需求受阻于社会上需要整体改善的部分很多,如对散工的数以千万计的就业需求;在俄罗斯,正如阿尔及利亚骚乱带来的震动所显示的,社会保障体系的薄弱严重需要精英的充实。在土耳其,巴西和印度,这些国家到处的迅速变化引发的是骚乱,示威和恐怖袭击。至于起因,有时是矛盾的,有些增长,有些下滑。全球各地,不同的社会以高度的紧张和社会经济崩溃,制造政治定时炸弹式的决策来对付2011年。
  
  It’s its position at the crossroads of three paths which thus makes 2011 a ruthless year. And ruthless it will be for the States (and local authorities) which have chosen not to draw hard conclusions from the three years of crisis which have gone before and / or who have contented themselves with cosmetic changes not altering their fundamental imbalances at all. It will also be so for businesses (and States (27)) who believed that the improvement in 2010 was a sign of a return to “normal” of the global economy. And finally it will be so for investors who have not understood that yesterday’s investments (securities, currencies,...) couldn’t be those of tomorrow (in any case for several years). History is usually a “good girl”. She often gives a warning shot before sweeping away the past. This time, it gave the warning shot in 2008. We estimate that in 2011, it will do the sweeping. Only players who have undertaken, even painstakingly, even partially, to adapt to the new conditions generated by the crisis will be able to hang on; for the others, chaos is at the end of the road.
  
  位于三岔路口的情势从而使得2011年成为严酷的一年。对那些在三年危机过去以前有选择地不从中吸取教训与/或仅作粉饰性的变化而完全不改变其基本的不平衡以为满足的州(和地方当局)将是严酷的一年。它也将是认为2010年的改善是一个“正常”的全球经济回潮的企业(和州(27))的严酷年。最后,对不了解昨天的投资(证券,货币,...)不能成为明天的(在任何情况下的未来几年)投资的投资者也将是严酷的一年。历史通常是一个“好女孩”,在将过去扫地出门前,她常会鸣枪警告。这次,它在2008年给了鸣枪警告。我们估计,在2011年,它也将这样做清扫。只有愿意,即使痛苦,甚至局部,适应这次危机所产生的新环境的玩家才能混过去;其他人,则混乱就在道路的尽头。
  
  ----------
  Notes:
  注释:
  
  (1) Or of the world that we have known since 1945 to repeat our 2006 description.
  (1)我们在2006年重复说明过的,自1945年以来的世界。
  
  (2) The recent decision by the US Department of Labor to extend the inclusion of the measure of long-term unemployment in the US employment statistics to five years instead of the maximum of two years until now, is a good indicator of the entry into a new stage of the crisis, a step that has seen the disappearance of the “practices” of the world before. As a matter of fact, the US government cites “the unprecedented rise” of long-term unemployment to justify this decision. Source: The Hill, 12/28/2010
  (2)美国劳工部最近决定,将就业统计中的长期失业人数统计由至今为止的最多两年延长到五年,是一个很好的这场危机已到一个新阶段的指标,是已见诸之前世界性“措施”已消失的新步骤。事实上,美国政府这个修正决定就是面对长期失业“前所未有的攀升”而作的。来源:山,2010年12月28日
  
  (3) These measures (monetary, financial, economic, budgetary, strategic) are now closely linked. That’s why they will be carried away in a series of successive shocks.
  (3)这些措施(货币,财政,经济,预算,战略)现在是紧密相连的。这就是为什么他们在一系列的连续冲击下失效了。
  
  (4) Source: The Independent, 01/13/2011
  (4)资料来源:独立,2011年1月13日
  
  (5) It’s even worse because it was international aid that brought cholera to the island, causing thousands of deaths.
  (5)它甚至更糟,因为它是国际援助,给岛上带来霍乱,造成数千人死亡。
  
  (6) Moreover Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, little known for his overactive imagination, has just indicated that “the US government could once again have to do exceptional things”, referring to the bank bailout in 2008. Source: MarketWatch, 01/13/2011
  (6)此外盖特纳美国财政部长,他过于活跃的想象力有点名声,刚表示“美国政府可能不得不再次做特殊的事情”,指的是2008年对银行的救助。来源:MarketWatch的2011年1月13日
  
  (7) Moreover, India and Iran are in the course of establishing a system of exchange “gold for oil” to try and avoid supply disruptions. Source: Times of India, 01/08/2011
  (7)此外,为尽量避免供应中断,印度和伊朗正建立一种“石油黄金”汇率制度。资料来源:印度时报,2011年1月8日
  
  (8) In January 2011 the FAO food price index (at 215) has just exceeded its previous record set in May 2008 (at 214).
  (8)粮农组织2011年1月发布的食品价格指数(215)刚刚超过其2008年5月的纪录(214)。
  
  (9) Wall Street banks are currently unloading their US Treasury bonds as fast as possible (unseen since 2004). Their official explanation is “the remarkable improvement in the US economy which no longer requires us to seek refuge in Treasury Bonds”. Of course, you are free to believe it, like Bloomberg ’s journalist on 01/10/2011.
  (9)华尔街银行目前正尽快(自2004年以来)脱手美国国债。他们的官方解释是“美国经济的显著改善已不再需要我们寻求避难国债”。当然,你尽可以像彭博的记者二〇一一年一月十日做的那样去相信。
  
  (10) Thus Euroland is already taking big steps forward along the path described in the GEAB N°50 with a discount in the case of refinancing the debts of a member state, whilst Japanese and US debt are now about to enter the storm. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; Telegraph, 01/05/2011
  (10)欧元区已经在《全球欧洲展望报告》第50期所描述的道路上大步前进,对会员国债务融资时给以折扣,而日本和美国的债务现在即将进入风暴区域。资料来源:彭博,2011年1月7日,电报,2011年1月5日
  
  (11) We believe that, in general, global banks’ balance sheets contain at least 50% ghost assets which in the coming year will require to be discounted by between 20% to 40% due to the return of the global recession combined with austerity, the rise in defaults on household, business, community and state loans, currency wars and a pickup in the fall of real estate prices. The American, European, Chinese, Japanese and others “stress-tests” can still continue to try and reassure markets with “Care Bears” scenarios except that this year it’s “Alien against Predator ” which is on the banks’ agenda. Source: Forbes, 01/12/2011
  (11)我们相信,在一般情况下,公司的全球银行资产负债表包含至少50%的影子资产,需要在下一年打20%至40%的折,原因是全球经济衰退伴随的紧缩,家庭,企业,社区和州贷款违约的升高,货币战争,阻止房地产价格下跌。美国,欧洲,中国,日本及其他“压力测试”区仍然可以继续努力维持市场的“关怀熊”情景,除了银行今年的“异形对铁血战士”议程。来源:福布斯,2011年1月12号
  
  (12) Each of these real estate markets will fall sharply again in 2011 in the case of those which have already started falling in recent years, or in the case of China, which will begin its sharp deflation amid economic slowdown and monetary tightening.
  (12)那些房市近年来已经开始下降,而中国由于经济放缓和收紧银根带来的大幅通缩,2011年这些地方的房地产市场均会急剧下降。
  
  (13) The Japanese economy is, moreover, one of the first victims of this currency war, with 76% of the CEOs of 110 major Japanese companies surveyed by Kyodo News now reported being pessimistic about Japanese growth in 2011 following the rise in the yen. Source: JapanTimes, 01/04/2011
  (13)此外,日本经济是这次汇率战争的第一批受害者之一,据共同社报道,调查目前日本110家主要企业中76%的CEO对2011年在日元升值后日本经济的增长表示悲观。来源:JapanTimes,2011年1月4日
  
  (14) Here are several instructive examples put together by the excellent John Rubino. Source: DollarCollapse, 01/08/2011
  (14)这里有优秀的约翰鲁维诺放在一起的几个很好的例子。来源:DollarCollapse,2011年1月8日
  
  (15) By way of reminder, in the GEAB N°48 we had classified Tunisia in the category of countries “with significant risks” in 2011.
  (15)提醒一下,在《全球欧洲展望报告》第48期,我们已将突尼斯归类到在2011年“有重大风险的”国家。
  
  (16) No doubt, moreover, that the Tunisian example is generating a round of reassessment amongst the rating agencies and the “experts in geopolitics”, who, as usual, didn’t see anything coming. The Tunisian case also illustrates the fact that it’s now the satellite countries of the West in general and the US in particular, who are on the way to shocks in 2011 and in the years to come. And it confirms what we regularly repeat: a crisis accelerates all the historical processes. The Ben Ali regime, twenty-three years old, collapsed in a few weeks. When political obsolescence is involved everything changes quickly. Now it’’s all the pro-Western Arab regimes which are obsolete in the light of events in Tunisia.
  (16)毫无疑问,此外,突尼斯的例子正在评级机构和“地缘政治专家”之间产生一轮新的评估,一如既往,他们什么也没看道。突尼斯情况也说明,它是西方,特别是美国的卫星国家,正在2011年和今后几年的冲击途中。也证实了我们经常重复的:危机正在历史性地加速。二十三岁的本阿里政权,在几个星期内坍塌。当涉及过时政治之际一切变化都很快。现在,突尼斯事件的发生显示所有的亲西方阿拉伯政权已经过时。
  
  (17) No doubt this « Western godfather » paralysis will be carefully analyzed in Rabat, Cairo, Jeddah and Amman, for example.
  (17)无疑,这位«西方教父»的瘫痪将被仔细分析,例如在拉巴特,开罗,吉达和安曼。
  
  (瘫痪18) A configuration that was all the more favorable because it was without a counterweight to their influence.
  (18)配置将更趋有利,因为它已无法抗衡他们的影响力了。
  
  (19) We will return in more detail in this GEAB issue, but seen from China we are not mistaken. Source: Xinhua, 01/02/2011
  (19)本期《全球欧洲展望报告》我们会更详细地讨论这个问题,但从中国看来我们没有错。来源:新华网,2011年1月2日
  
  (20) Little by little Europeans are discovering that they are dependent on centres of power other than Washington. Beijing, Moscow, Brazilia, New Dehli,… Source: La Tribune, 01/05/2011; Libération, 12/24/2010; El Pais, 01/05/2011
  (20)欧洲人发现,他们正一点一点地依附于除华盛顿外的权力中心。北京,莫斯科,巴西利亚,新德里,...来源:论坛报,2011年1月5日,解放,2010年12月24日,国家报,2011年1月5日
  
  (21) All Japan’’s energy is focused on its desperate attempt to resist the attraction of China. As for other Western countries, they are not able to significantly influence global trends.
  (21)全日本的精力正集中在拼命抵抗中国的吸引力。至于其他的西方国家,则不能够显着影响全球的趋势。
  
  (22) The US Dollar’s place in the global system is a part of these last foundations that the BRIC countries are actively eroding day after day.
  (22)金砖四国正日复一日地在积极侵蚀美国美元在全球体系可被取而代之的最后基础部分。
  
  (23) As regards deficit, the US case is textbook. Beyond the speeches, everything continues as before the crisis with a deficit swelling exponentially. However, even the IMF is now ringing the alarm. Source: Reuters, 01/08/2011
  (23)至于赤字,美国的情况是教科书。除了演讲,一切都像危机以前那样继续出现赤字肿胀指数。现在,即使是国际货币基金组织也敲响了警钟。资料来源:路透社,2011年1月8日
  
  (24) Moreover, even Market Watch on 01/12/2011, echoing the Davos Forum, is concerned over the lack of international coordination, which is in itself a major risk to the global economy.
  (24)此外,呼应达沃斯论坛,2011年1月12日的《市场观察》对缺乏国际协调也表示了关注,缺乏国际协调本身是全球经济的一个重大风险。
  
  (25) Millions of Americans are discovering food banks for the first time in their lives, whilst in California, as in many other states, the education system is disintegrating fast. In Illinois, studies on the state deficit are now comparing it to the Titanic. 2010 broke the record for real estate foreclosures. Sources: Alternet, 12/27/2010; CNN, 01/08/2011; IGPA-Illinois, 01/2011; LADailyNews, 01/13/2011
  (25)以百万计的美国人生平第一次在寻找他们的食品银行,而在加利福尼亚州,正如在许多其他州,教育系统正在快速瓦解。在伊利诺伊州,对州的赤字研究发现其可比泰坦尼克号。 2010年打破了房地产抵押品赎回权的纪录。来源:Alternet,2010年12月27日,美国有线电视新闻网,2011年1月8日; IGPA,伊利诺伊州,01/2011; LADailyNews,2011年1月13日
  
  (26) Ireland, which is facing, purely and simply, a reconstruction of its economy, is a good example of situations to come. But even Germany, with remarkable current economic results however can’t escape this development as shown by the funding crisis for cultural activities. Whilst in the United Kingdom, millions of retirees are seeing their incomes cut for the third year running. Sources : Irish Times, 12/31/2010; Deutsche Welle, 01/03/2011; Telegraph, 01/13/2011
  (26)爱尔兰,纯粹而简单,面临其经济的重建,是眼下一个很好的例子。即使德国,目前的经济成果显著,文化活动的资金危机显示亦不能逃脱这种发展。在英国,则是数百万退休人员的收入连续第三年减少。资料来源:爱尔兰时报,2010年12月31日,德国之声,2011年1月3日,电报,2011年1月13日
  
  (27) In this regard, US leaders confirm that they are rushing straight into the wall of public debt, failing to anticipate the problems. Indeed, the recent statement by Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, that the Fed will not help the States (30% fall in 2009 tax revenues according to the Washington Post on 01/05/2011) and the cities collapsing under their debts, just as Congress decides to stop issuing “Build America Bonds” which enabled States to avoid bankruptcy these last few years, shows a Washington blindness only equal to that which Washington demonstrated in 2007/2008 in the face of the mounting consequences of the “subprime” crisis. Sources: Bloomberg, 01/07/2011; WashingtonBlog, 01/13/2011
  (27)在这方面,美国领导人确认,他们直接撞上了公共债务之墙,而未能预见问题。事实上,由本伯南克,美联储 最近发表的声明表示,美联储将不利于美国(根据2011年1月5日华盛顿邮报2009年税收收入跌幅达30%)和城市由其债务引起的崩溃,一如最近几年,美国国会决定停止发行“建设美国债券”而使各州无法躲避破产,显示华盛顿的盲目与2007/2008年度任由“次贷”危机的后果累积一样。资料来源:彭博,2011年1月7日; WashingtonBlog,2011年1月13日
  
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